jja79 said:
I completely agree. What was the time frame over which the situation went from safe to catastrophic? Following along the newscasts that morning the amount of time that passed seemed remarkably short but I don't really know.
In Hunt, where the gauge is roughly 7 miles downstream and also accounting for extra tributaries not represented in the Guadalupe at mystic……
12:00 am 50 gallons per second …so not much which makes sense since it didn't even start raining until roughly 12 to 12:30am. 1:10am the cell was parked over Kerr county with no steering currents. 1:14 the NWS WARNING was issued.
3:00 am 264 gallons per second
3:30 am 125,000 gallons per second. According to Charlie Hastings, Kerr Co. Engineer, that is a 10' rise that everyone has seen a hundred times before. Not that weird. But very shortly after it was much worse.
90% of the rain that fell fell over the South fork basin.
Starting hard at 1am or so and continuing for several hours.
It's a long watch but the hearings are worth listening to. Most folks here and online are running on hearsay and what they heard someone heard the news say. Much of that is not accurate. Hearing it first hand is eye opening and explains why decisions were made. Everything about warnings, evacuation, leaving sooner, etc are things we talk about knowing the end result and all of the data in the sunlight looking back at the situation from a fish eye lens.