John Cocktolstoy said:

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Gunny456 said:

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That's not really a fair thing to say to him brother.

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Oh I have to disagree, this is getting out of control. It's like CNN is on here using the same word over and over so everyone is familiar with the Eastlands and "incompetence".

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What evidence do you have to show they weren't incompetent?

That joke of an emergency plan screams incompetence

Incompetent is a fairly broad thing to say...in this event, yes, mistakes were made. There have been roughly 42 major flood events on the Guadalupe River since the beginning of Camp Mystic. Their plan worked for all of these except this most recent, unprecedented event....and they are paying for it, with the loss of Dick, and no doubt, the continued memories of that terrible morning. To label someone as incompetent when they were following a playbook that worked for them for the last century is a bit tough, especially when they paid for it with their own life. How many lives over the past century were saved by making sure girls stayed in their cabin and didn't take things into their own hands during a flood event?

Fdsa said:

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Incompetent is a fairly broad thing to say...in this event, yes, mistakes were made. There have been roughly 42 major flood events on the Guadalupe River since the beginning of Camp Mystic. Their plan worked for all of these except this most recent, unprecedented event....and they are paying for it, with the loss of Dick, and no doubt, the continued memories of that terrible morning. To label someone as incompetent when they were following a playbook that worked for them for the last century is a bit tough, especially when they paid for it with their own life. How many lives over the past century were saved by making sure girls stayed in their cabin and didn't take things into their own hands during a flood event?

---

How many of those flood events took place while camp was in session during the summer months?

This plan is garbage, starting with woefully inadequate "accident" plan. Open the windows if there is a tornado is old wives tale bunk that is nonsense; it increases the likelihood of damage and injury. Then there is the Flood plan where none of the means of communication were either available or utilized.

Incompetent.

dermdoc said:

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schmellba99 said:

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Gunny456 said:

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This comparison is not the same. Hurricanes don't follow the same exact path every single time.
If every single hurricane that ever formed in the gulf followed one given path to hit the exact same spot along the coast ……and you had years of data that proved that….. then yes you are negligent for building something in that consistently given path.
A river does just that. The Guadalupe River valley was formed over thousands of years of the path of the Guadalupe eroding and forming it. The flood of 2025 happened sometime in the rivers history before. That was a given. It will happen again. That is a given as well.
It could happen again tomorrow, or this coming 4th of July again, or 80 years from now. Regardless we know it can happen.

---

Here's the deal though.

Every river floods. All of them. Some more frequent than others, but every single one in the history of the world has flooded and every single one will flood again. Up until this flood, which was an absolute freak of a weather event, for the entire life of Mystic and every other camp along the river, this had not happened.

But at some point you have to recognize that there are inherent dangers wherever you go. If you live in flood zones, it is inherent that at some point there will likely be a flood. If you live on the gulf coast or the east coast up to about DC, you are almost guaranteed to endure a tropical storm or hurricane at least once in your life. If you live in tornado alley, you are almost guaranteed to be affected by a tornado at some point in time. Up north it freezes every single year. It gets hot in the desert. Mountains have avalances and snow ins. Fire is always an inherent danger, even in the middle of the desert. Everywhere has a drought at some point. Everywhere has a flood at some point.

Danger is an absolute fact of life. We accept it daily. It isn't until something tragic happens that all of a sudden we get the "well they should have known!" armchair quarterbacking. Mystic had been around for [literally] 100 years. Up until last year there wasn't a need for contingency plans and having 47 people on staff who's entire job was to evacuate campers during a 500 year storm. It just had never really happened.

None of that takes away from the absolute tragedy of the situation - there is literally nothing that can be done with money or punishment or anything that will undo what nature did. What is happening now is little more than a pure vindictive need to blame somebody, anybody, and make a buck or two in the process. If the goal is to change early warning systems (which that county didn't have), then the focus should be on fixing that issue and not finding somebody to blame because they put their family first or didn't realize the gravity of the situation as the river rose 30+ feet in a matter of minutes like it did.

Now if you can show unequivocably that the owners of Mystic got warnings that told them the river was going to rise 30 feet in 20 minutes and prove they shrugged their shoulders and said "meh, whatever", then you have a different argument. But I have a hard time that particular sequence of events happened. There were plenty of others that died on the river that night other than the poor kids at Mystic as well. They all took a risk by camping on a literal riverbed in an area that, under the exact right freak set of circumstances, could produce deadly flash floods.

If the mentality is "can't ever build where it may flood, have fire, drought, etc." then we cannot build anything anywhere on this planet and you might as well wipe every single house in the hill country off the map. Which may not be a bad thing, but it is absolutely impractical.

---

Sorry but your post pisses me off. Trying to get a buck? Vindictive? You ever lost a 8 y/o girl due to incompetence Wow.
27 girls died. Due to incompetence. The Eastlands will not give up Myatic. Myatic needs to continue under competent ownership. The only way to do that is to sue because the Eastlands will it give it up or even sell it.
I want 100 more Camp Mystics that are safe for 8 y/o girls and anybody else. Run by competent people with safety plans, walkie tallkie communications,, etc.
Having over 700 girls under your sworn care is completely different than an adult choosing to buy a beach house or build in a flood plain.
27 preventable deaths and you want to go after the parents of the dead kids? Wow

---

You are letting your emotions take over and read things that aren't there.

The fact of the matter is that you hear that these lawsuits are "for the greater good" or some other nonsense. That is unequivocably false. The lawsuits, understandably, are a method of lashing out because we want somebody somewhere to be responsible for what happened. I'm not blaming the parents, I'm saying that is human fuggin nature.

If the intent is actually to change things for the greater good, then those parents and their lawyers need to be in Ausin lobbying to have the county do better at early warning systems. They should be lobbying the state that there needs to be implementation of flash flood systems in the hill country like there is with the national weather service that sends out their alarms on your phones, Amber Alerts, Silver Alerts, etc. But they aren't. They are looking for something that they think will make them heal better or faster or whatever. That's what people, and lawyers, ultimately do. Calling a spade a spade isn't wrong.

I feel for those parents, I honestly do. But there are no amount of lawsuits that are going to fill the hole in the hearts of those parents. And again - Mystic had been around for a century. Literally 100 years. If they were as incompentent as you say, they had been incompetent for roughly a century. Which may well be the case and they got lucky for 99 years in a row.

Thinking the owners should just give up the camp isn't based in reality. You wouldn't give up what is yours either, that's not how people operate. Especially when what you are being asked to give up is likely representative of everything you have worked for.

Like I said - if there is hard data and proof that they were absolutely negligent, you have a completely different argument from me. But the logical person in me has a very hard time sitting back after the fact and stating that they should have known that this 500 year once in a lifetime flood was going to happen that very night and they still chose to do nothing about it.

And my response was also directed at the "you should never build anywhere there is a chance of danger". That is just not practical in any real world scenario because we are surrounded by some level of danger day in and day out. Most of us face a much higher chance of bad things happening daily to and from work than anywhere else, and we don't think twice about jumping in the truck and driving down the road with thousands of idiots on their phones.

schmellba99 said:

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dermdoc said:

---

schmellba99 said:

---

Gunny456 said:

---

This comparison is not the same. Hurricanes don't follow the same exact path every single time.
If every single hurricane that ever formed in the gulf followed one given path to hit the exact same spot along the coast ……and you had years of data that proved that….. then yes you are negligent for building something in that consistently given path.
A river does just that. The Guadalupe River valley was formed over thousands of years of the path of the Guadalupe eroding and forming it. The flood of 2025 happened sometime in the rivers history before. That was a given. It will happen again. That is a given as well.
It could happen again tomorrow, or this coming 4th of July again, or 80 years from now. Regardless we know it can happen.

---

Here's the deal though.

Every river floods. All of them. Some more frequent than others, but every single one in the history of the world has flooded and every single one will flood again. Up until this flood, which was an absolute freak of a weather event, for the entire life of Mystic and every other camp along the river, this had not happened.

But at some point you have to recognize that there are inherent dangers wherever you go. If you live in flood zones, it is inherent that at some point there will likely be a flood. If you live on the gulf coast or the east coast up to about DC, you are almost guaranteed to endure a tropical storm or hurricane at least once in your life. If you live in tornado alley, you are almost guaranteed to be affected by a tornado at some point in time. Up north it freezes every single year. It gets hot in the desert. Mountains have avalances and snow ins. Fire is always an inherent danger, even in the middle of the desert. Everywhere has a drought at some point. Everywhere has a flood at some point.

Danger is an absolute fact of life. We accept it daily. It isn't until something tragic happens that all of a sudden we get the "well they should have known!" armchair quarterbacking. Mystic had been around for [literally] 100 years. Up until last year there wasn't a need for contingency plans and having 47 people on staff who's entire job was to evacuate campers during a 500 year storm. It just had never really happened.

None of that takes away from the absolute tragedy of the situation - there is literally nothing that can be done with money or punishment or anything that will undo what nature did. What is happening now is little more than a pure vindictive need to blame somebody, anybody, and make a buck or two in the process. If the goal is to change early warning systems (which that county didn't have), then the focus should be on fixing that issue and not finding somebody to blame because they put their family first or didn't realize the gravity of the situation as the river rose 30+ feet in a matter of minutes like it did.

Now if you can show unequivocably that the owners of Mystic got warnings that told them the river was going to rise 30 feet in 20 minutes and prove they shrugged their shoulders and said "meh, whatever", then you have a different argument. But I have a hard time that particular sequence of events happened. There were plenty of others that died on the river that night other than the poor kids at Mystic as well. They all took a risk by camping on a literal riverbed in an area that, under the exact right freak set of circumstances, could produce deadly flash floods.

If the mentality is "can't ever build where it may flood, have fire, drought, etc." then we cannot build anything anywhere on this planet and you might as well wipe every single house in the hill country off the map. Which may not be a bad thing, but it is absolutely impractical.

---

Sorry but your post pisses me off. Trying to get a buck? Vindictive? You ever lost a 8 y/o girl due to incompetence Wow.
27 girls died. Due to incompetence. The Eastlands will not give up Myatic. Myatic needs to continue under competent ownership. The only way to do that is to sue because the Eastlands will it give it up or even sell it.
I want 100 more Camp Mystics that are safe for 8 y/o girls and anybody else. Run by competent people with safety plans, walkie tallkie communications,, etc.
Having over 700 girls under your sworn care is completely different than an adult choosing to buy a beach house or build in a flood plain.
27 preventable deaths and you want to go after the parents of the dead kids? Wow

---

You are letting your emotions take over and read things that aren't there.

The fact of the matter is that you hear that these lawsuits are "for the greater good" or some other nonsense. That is unequivocably false. The lawsuits, understandably, are a method of lashing out because we want somebody somewhere to be responsible for what happened. I'm not blaming the parents, I'm saying that is human fuggin nature.

If the intent is actually to change things for the greater good, then those parents and their lawyers need to be in Ausin lobbying to have the county do better at early warning systems. They should be lobbying the state that there needs to be implementation of flash flood systems in the hill country like there is with the national weather service that sends out their alarms on your phones, Amber Alerts, Silver Alerts, etc. But they aren't. They are looking for something that they think will make them heal better or faster or whatever. That's what people, and lawyers, ultimately do. Calling a spade a spade isn't wrong.

I feel for those parents, I honestly do. But there are no amount of lawsuits that are going to fill the hole in the hearts of those parents. And again - Mystic had been around for a century. Literally 100 years. If they were as incompentent as you say, they had been incompetent for roughly a century. Which may well be the case and they got lucky for 99 years in a row.

Thinking the owners should just give up the camp isn't based in reality. You wouldn't give up what is yours either, that's not how people operate. Especially when what you are being asked to give up is likely representative of everything you have worked for.

Like I said - if there is hard data and proof that they were absolutely negligent, you have a completely different argument from me. But the logical person in me has a very hard time sitting back after the fact and stating that they should have known that this 500 year once in a lifetime flood was going to happen that very night and they still chose to do nothing about it.

And my response was also directed at the "you should never build anywhere there is a chance of danger". That is just not practical in any real world scenario because we are surrounded by some level of danger day in and day out. Most of us face a much higher chance of bad things happening daily to and from work than anywhere else, and we don't think twice about jumping in the truck and driving down the road with thousands of idiots on their phones.

---

WRONG, the parents have been in Austin lobbying for change for camp safety.

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-signs-texas-summer-camp-safety-bills-into-law

chickencoupe16 said:

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dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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Dermdoc, I'm really surprised you are not pushing for an investigation against the Eastland's for withholding the location of the missing kids. Give it a break man. They have been doing this for a long time and doing it right. No abuse or problems. Just good folks trying to do this world some good.
I wish as many satisfied clients and employees were called to the stand, but half will have passed with age. I'm all for letting this play out and you just want to just bash the owners and claim "incompetence" every post.

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Could the Eastlands at least report the deaths as they are legally required to do? Seems to be kind if revealing to me,

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Do they need to do this? Yes. Is it the gotcha you think it is? No.

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No. But it reveals a pattern of not doing things right. I am not looking for a gotcha. And frankly do not need one. Just curious, did you read the links I provided?

Gunny456 said:

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Apparently you missed the whole point of what I said. I stated simply that his comparison to hurricane damage and risk was not the same as a single rivers risk that had already shown for thousands of years where it floods. A river doesn't change its location on a map…it's basically in the same geographical location year after year.
A hurricane can go anywhere along the gulf ..it doesn't follow the same path everytime. Right?
If it rains like hell on the Guadalupe River watershed, the Guadalupe River is going to flood every single time. Right?
If a hurricane comes into the gulf it doesn't always follow that same path and tear up the same houses every time like the Guadalupe River does….or any river.
I don't know what's so hard to understand about that comparison that I made.

---

But hurricanes hit the same place all of the time. In my lifetime there have been far more than one that has hit where I grew up on the coast. There will be more in my lifetime. And plenty after.



And in all of our history there hasn't been a flood like that on the river that I'm aware of (ancecdotal, I know). At least not in the history of Camp Mystic there hasn't been. That rain storm wasn't just a run of the mill storm, it was a pretty rare phenomenon that happened to hit at the headwaters of the Guadalupe. One of the reasons why this flood was as destructive as it was is because of how rare it was and how fast the water rose in such a short period of time - it was an outlier without a doubt in terms of severity and speed of the floodwaters.

Your post wasn't just a "hurricanes are different than floods". You stated that building anywhere that could be hit by a flood is negligent. It isn't.

Don't have the exact data, as I am quoting a Texas Tribune article...but historically, likley 75% of those were from May - August timeframe.

schmellba99 said:

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dermdoc said:

---

schmellba99 said:

---

Gunny456 said:

---

This comparison is not the same. Hurricanes don't follow the same exact path every single time.
If every single hurricane that ever formed in the gulf followed one given path to hit the exact same spot along the coast ……and you had years of data that proved that….. then yes you are negligent for building something in that consistently given path.
A river does just that. The Guadalupe River valley was formed over thousands of years of the path of the Guadalupe eroding and forming it. The flood of 2025 happened sometime in the rivers history before. That was a given. It will happen again. That is a given as well.
It could happen again tomorrow, or this coming 4th of July again, or 80 years from now. Regardless we know it can happen.

---

Here's the deal though.

Every river floods. All of them. Some more frequent than others, but every single one in the history of the world has flooded and every single one will flood again. Up until this flood, which was an absolute freak of a weather event, for the entire life of Mystic and every other camp along the river, this had not happened.

But at some point you have to recognize that there are inherent dangers wherever you go. If you live in flood zones, it is inherent that at some point there will likely be a flood. If you live on the gulf coast or the east coast up to about DC, you are almost guaranteed to endure a tropical storm or hurricane at least once in your life. If you live in tornado alley, you are almost guaranteed to be affected by a tornado at some point in time. Up north it freezes every single year. It gets hot in the desert. Mountains have avalances and snow ins. Fire is always an inherent danger, even in the middle of the desert. Everywhere has a drought at some point. Everywhere has a flood at some point.

Danger is an absolute fact of life. We accept it daily. It isn't until something tragic happens that all of a sudden we get the "well they should have known!" armchair quarterbacking. Mystic had been around for [literally] 100 years. Up until last year there wasn't a need for contingency plans and having 47 people on staff who's entire job was to evacuate campers during a 500 year storm. It just had never really happened.

None of that takes away from the absolute tragedy of the situation - there is literally nothing that can be done with money or punishment or anything that will undo what nature did. What is happening now is little more than a pure vindictive need to blame somebody, anybody, and make a buck or two in the process. If the goal is to change early warning systems (which that county didn't have), then the focus should be on fixing that issue and not finding somebody to blame because they put their family first or didn't realize the gravity of the situation as the river rose 30+ feet in a matter of minutes like it did.

Now if you can show unequivocably that the owners of Mystic got warnings that told them the river was going to rise 30 feet in 20 minutes and prove they shrugged their shoulders and said "meh, whatever", then you have a different argument. But I have a hard time that particular sequence of events happened. There were plenty of others that died on the river that night other than the poor kids at Mystic as well. They all took a risk by camping on a literal riverbed in an area that, under the exact right freak set of circumstances, could produce deadly flash floods.

If the mentality is "can't ever build where it may flood, have fire, drought, etc." then we cannot build anything anywhere on this planet and you might as well wipe every single house in the hill country off the map. Which may not be a bad thing, but it is absolutely impractical.

---

Sorry but your post pisses me off. Trying to get a buck? Vindictive? You ever lost a 8 y/o girl due to incompetence Wow.
27 girls died. Due to incompetence. The Eastlands will not give up Myatic. Myatic needs to continue under competent ownership. The only way to do that is to sue because the Eastlands will it give it up or even sell it.
I want 100 more Camp Mystics that are safe for 8 y/o girls and anybody else. Run by competent people with safety plans, walkie tallkie communications,, etc.
Having over 700 girls under your sworn care is completely different than an adult choosing to buy a beach house or build in a flood plain.
27 preventable deaths and you want to go after the parents of the dead kids? Wow

---

You are letting your emotions take over and read things that aren't there.

The fact of the matter is that you hear that these lawsuits are "for the greater good" or some other nonsense. That is unequivocably false. The lawsuits, understandably, are a method of lashing out because we want somebody somewhere to be responsible for what happened. I'm not blaming the parents, I'm saying that is human fuggin nature.

If the intent is actually to change things for the greater good, then those parents and their lawyers need to be in Ausin lobbying to have the county do better at early warning systems. They should be lobbying the state that there needs to be implementation of flash flood systems in the hill country like there is with the national weather service that sends out their alarms on your phones, Amber Alerts, Silver Alerts, etc. But they aren't. They are looking for something that they think will make them heal better or faster or whatever. That's what people, and lawyers, ultimately do. Calling a spade a spade isn't wrong.

I feel for those parents, I honestly do. But there are no amount of lawsuits that are going to fill the hole in the hearts of those parents. And again - Mystic had been around for a century. Literally 100 years. If they were as incompentent as you say, they had been incompetent for roughly a century. Which may well be the case and they got lucky for 99 years in a row.

Thinking the owners should just give up the camp isn't based in reality. You wouldn't give up what is yours either, that's not how people operate. Especially when what you are being asked to give up is likely representative of everything you have worked for.

Like I said - if there is hard data and proof that they were absolutely negligent, you have a completely different argument from me. But the logical person in me has a very hard time sitting back after the fact and stating that they should have known that this 500 year once in a lifetime flood was going to happen that very night and they still chose to do nothing about it.

And my response was also directed at the "you should never build anywhere there is a chance of danger". That is just not practical in any real world scenario because we are surrounded by some level of danger day in and day out. Most of us face a much higher chance of bad things happening daily to and from work than anywhere else, and we don't think twice about jumping in the truck and driving down the road with thousands of idiots on their phones.

---

Sorry but you have no idea what you are talking about. My nephew and other parents of the dead girls spent a lot of time in Austin and got some pretty important legislation passed to try to prevent this from happening again. So you are wrong about that. You know nothing about the motives behind the lawsuits but arrogantly claim you do because of "fuggimg human nature". Are you God?
We live with this everyday. Every birthday, holiday, life event. The accusations you are making against the parents and their motives whether implied or explicitly stated iare pretty obvious. And frankly disgusting.

may I ask if you you even took the time to provide the links I provided? And you honestly think the level of responsibility for you and I building a beach house or a house in a flood plane carry's the same amount of liability and responsibility as people who are in charge of have have promised safety to 700 little girls?

And please do not talk to me like a child. I am almost 71 years old and have lived an incredibly full life. I am not dumb or naive and understand how dangerous daily life is. I was a medical intern at Ben Taub and had life and death stuff daily. I get personal responsibility.

But a rational person understands that someone who is responsibke for the health and welfare of 700 little girls has a much higher responsibility.

And I lashed out because you accused the parents of being after "a few bucks" because of "fuggimg human nature". And the lashing out was much deserved.

schmellba99 said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Apparently you missed the whole point of what I said. I stated simply that his comparison to hurricane damage and risk was not the same as a single rivers risk that had already shown for thousands of years where it floods. A river doesn't change its location on a map…it's basically in the same geographical location year after year.
A hurricane can go anywhere along the gulf ..it doesn't follow the same path everytime. Right?
If it rains like hell on the Guadalupe River watershed, the Guadalupe River is going to flood every single time. Right?
If a hurricane comes into the gulf it doesn't always follow that same path and tear up the same houses every time like the Guadalupe River does….or any river.
I don't know what's so hard to understand about that comparison that I made.

---

But hurricanes hit the same place all of the time. In my lifetime there have been far more than one that has hit where I grew up on the coast. There will be more in my lifetime. And plenty after.



And in all of our history there hasn't been a flood like that on the river that I'm aware of (ancecdotal, I know). At least not in the history of Camp Mystic there hasn't been. That rain storm wasn't just a run of the mill storm, it was a pretty rare phenomenon that happened to hit at the headwaters of the Guadalupe. One of the reasons why this flood was as destructive as it was is because of how rare it was and how fast the water rose in such a short period of time - it was an outlier without a doubt in terms of severity and speed of the floodwaters.

Your post wasn't just a "hurricanes are different than floods". You stated that building anywhere that could be hit by a flood is negligent. It isn't.

---

I never said that. I get it. But this is apples to oranges. Say you are responsible for 700 little girls. Do you not have a heightened sense of awareness and responsibility than if you are building a beach house? Or you and some buds camping on a river? It is truly unfathomable to think that way in my opinion.

Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

Gunny456 said:

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Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

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Great question.

txags92 said:

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To me, the best outcome would be for the families and the Eastlands to make a deal to settle. In exchange for release of any further claims, the Eastlands give up title to Mystic and the property and the insurance company pays out the full policy value into a fund to be used to repair and operate Mystic. The families form a council, hire professional camp management, and reopen with better plans and safer facilities located away from the flood plain. That is best case for everybody except the ones looking for a big pay day.

---

Though I have not asked directly, I get the sense that the H27 families would be okay with Camp Mystic Guadalupe continuing to exist, just as long as no one named Eastland is anywhere near it ever again.

Sir, it is quite obvious that you are very involved, up to speed, and know what has transpired. State your case and let folks watch it play out. You have given lots of info here, let it stand for itself. There is no need to bash folks here when they have a different perspective than yourself. Every one of us feels for you and yours, lets take a step back and let it fall where it falls.

Gunny456 said:

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Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

---

You on the first page. But you edited it.

"So don't build stuff where it can [flood]….and if you do….yes you're negligent."

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/camp-mystic-parents-central-texas-flooding-safety-bill-austin-hearing/

Here is just one link about the parents testifying for increased safety. There are countless others. Just Google Camp Mystic parents testifying for increased before Texas Senate. They got two bills passed which I believe Mystic lobbied against.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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Sir, it is quite obvious that you are very involved, up to speed, and know what has transpired. State your case and let folks watch it play out. You have given lots of info here, let it stand for itself. There is no need to bash folks here when they have a different perspective than yourself. Every one of us feels for you and yours, lets take a step back and let it fall where it falls.

---

Fair enough. Do you agree with accusing the parents of being ina oersonal vendetta for money as has been posted here? Or posting false info about the parents not testifying? Is that "bashing"?
Or are you just critical of me? Will you tell them to shut up and let things work out? How passive aggressive of you.

May I ask did you read the links I provided?

Quote:

---

And in all of our history there hasn't been a flood like that on the river that I'm aware of (ancecdotal, I know). At least not in the history of Camp Mystic there hasn't been. That rain storm wasn't just a run of the mill storm, it was a pretty rare phenomenon that happened to hit at the headwaters of the Guadalupe. One of the reasons why this flood was as destructive as it was is because of how rare it was and how fast the water rose in such a short period of time - it was an outlier without a doubt in terms of severity and speed of the floodwaters.

---

From a risk management perspective, this is all meaningless and most of it is factually incorrect.

We have discussed throughout this thread how their have been many events historically of similar intensity and how multiple parties going back decades have been on record about the risks of this kind of flood.

A Camp Mystic alum who stayed in one of the same dorms that was destroyed last summer gave an in-depth interview. She was in the same Bubble Inn

Quote:

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Forty-eight-year-old Katherine Howe let memories of the summer of '87 rush back to her on Friday.
As the world woke up to the news of missing girls who'd been swept away from their summer camp cabins in violent flood waters on July 4, Howe was transported back to when she was 10 years old and staying in one of the same cabins at Camp Mystic, called Bubble Inn.

For Howe, the details of the destruction were devastating. And eerily familiar.
Nearly 40 years ago, as Howe slept in Bubble Inn on July 17, a 29-foot flash flood hit Comfort, Texas just 15 miles away.

The storms produced a "train-effect, one following another" and dumped 5-10 inches of rain in the upper headwaters of the Guadalupe River basin, the National Weather Service said at the time.

"I was on the top bunk," she told The Barbed Wire, "and I remember being … able to actually glimpse the river through the trees from our cabin." That visibility, she said, meant that the water had risen to dangerous levels. Howe and her cabinmates were evacuated and spent the night in the recreation hall, which was on higher ground.

"We all stayed at camp," she said. "Then when the waters receded, I distinctly remember being shocked that everything at the waterfront was completely gone, like all the canoes were gone, all the structures around the waterfront were gone. The diving board was gone. Everything was completely gone. And one of my friends who I was chatting with recently said that she remembered looking up into a tree and seeing a canoe wedged in a tree 30 feet up in the air."

---

There was even a movie made about the 1978 flood. There is no case to be made that this very event should not have been planned for by responsible parties.

Howdy Dammit said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

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You on the first page. But you edited it.

"So don't build stuff where it can [flood]….and if you do….yes you're negligent."

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Do you think a person choosing to build in a flood plane or build a beach cabin is the same as if you are responsible for 700 hundred young girls?

dermdoc said:

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https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/camp-mystic-parents-central-texas-flooding-safety-bill-austin-hearing/

Here is just one link about the parents testifying for increased safety. There are countless others. Just Google Camp Mystic parents testifying for increased before Texas Senate. They got two bills passed which I believe Mystic lobbied against.

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That is not true. They were fighting just like thousands of others for insurance purposes to move 100 year old floodplain.

Those 42 events were in the entire Guadalupe River system as I read it. The data would need to be for the upper Guadalupe above Canyon Lake only. The data would also have to indicate the flood stage during each event at Camp Mystic location to see if it would necessitate implementation of their "plan".
The upper Guadalupe, during a lot its flood events, affects downstream of Mystics location. Majority of them come from the watershed of Cypress Creek (like in 1978) and are not a major flood at Mystic at all.
Think your "42 times their plan worked" is not even close to being relevant…just sayin.

Have you ever been to Camp Mystic? The 1978 story proves 2025 was an unprecedented event.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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dermdoc said:

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https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/camp-mystic-parents-central-texas-flooding-safety-bill-austin-hearing/

Here is just one link about the parents testifying for increased safety. There are countless others. Just Google Camp Mystic parents testifying for increased before Texas Senate. They got two bills passed which I believe Mystic lobbied against.

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That is not true. They were fighting just like thousands of others for insurance purposes to move 100 year old floodplain.

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Fine. But that means they lobbied against the resolutions, correct?

And I am curious if you read the links I provided. You seem rational.

dermdoc said:

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Howdy Dammit said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

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You on the first page. But you edited it.

"So don't build stuff where it can [flood]….and if you do….yes you're negligent."

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Do you think a person choosing to build in a flood plane or build a beach cabin is the same as if you are responsible for 700 hundred young girls?

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I'm really just speaking to the floodplain/building issue. Not defending the plan that was posted. From what I've seen posted above, that plan was clearly inadequate.

One question I do have though, is whether that emergency plan was actually shared with parents ahead of time. Not placing blame on them at all, but there's a difference between an inadequate plan being presented as sufficient versus one that's openly published for review up front.

Does that have any relevance legally, which is what this thread is oriented to?

TxAG-010 said:

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There are no winners in this situation, legal battle, or frankly this thread....

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This has gone exactly as I thought It would. I think everyone should read this reminder again. There are no winners.

dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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Sir, it is quite obvious that you are very involved, up to speed, and know what has transpired. State your case and let folks watch it play out. You have given lots of info here, let it stand for itself. There is no need to bash folks here when they have a different perspective than yourself. Every one of us feels for you and yours, lets take a step back and let it fall where it falls.

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Fair enough. Do you agree with accusing the parents of being ina oersonal vendetta for money as has been posted here? Or posting false info about the parents not testifying? Is that "bashing"?
Or are you just critical of me? Will you tell them to shut up and let things work out? How passive aggressive of you.

May I ask did you read the links I provided?

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What I am saying is this forum, here on Texags, Is this where you want to do this? State your case and let it take place in real time. If everything is as you say it is it should be over in 10 minutes and then y'all can talk amongst each other how high and mightier you are because the Eastland's ignored safety for a 100 years. Why were you and others not doing anything about this 10 years ago. Is that negligence? No, you never thought it could happen either.

Howdy Dammit said:

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dermdoc said:

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Howdy Dammit said:

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Gunny456 said:

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Where did anybody say you should not build anywhere there is a chance of danger??

---

You on the first page. But you edited it.

"So don't build stuff where it can [flood]….and if you do….yes you're negligent."

---

Do you think a person choosing to build in a flood plane or build a beach cabin is the same as if you are responsible for 700 hundred young girls?

---

I'm really just speaking to the floodplain/building issue. Not defending the plan that was posted. From what I've seen posted above, that plan was clearly inadequate.

One question I do have though, is whether that emergency plan was actually shared with parents ahead of time. Not placing blame on them at all, but there's a difference between an inadequate plan being presented as sufficient versus one that's openly published for review up front.

Does that have any relevance legally, which is what this thread is oriented to?

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I have no idea. I will try to find out. But that is not my point. To me, it is a totally different issue building a beach house or a home in a flood plane than building a camp for 700 girls. Seems like 2 totally different things to me.

Howdy Dammit said:

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dermdoc said:

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txags92 said:

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To me, the best outcome would be for the families and the Eastlands to make a deal to settle. In exchange for release of any further claims, the Eastlands give up title to Mystic and the property and the insurance company pays out the full policy value into a fund to be used to repair and operate Mystic. The families form a council, hire professional camp management, and reopen with better plans and safer facilities located away from the flood plain. That is best case for everybody except the ones looking for a big pay day.

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I like that. The Eastlands are not going to budge in my opinion. There is nothing wrong with Mystic and I love the concept. Needs to be run by competent people.

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I don't know anything about the Eastlands or what was or wasn't done to save lives, so I can't really speak to that.

What I do believe is that you never truly know the level of competence of the people responsible for your children in a crisis.

We've seen that play out in Uvalde, where multiple levels of authority failed those kids. And then, just the other day, you see a principal step in, attack a gunman, and potentially save countless lives. One of those attacks had numerous individuals trained in crises management and completely failed, while the other had a single brave man with likely zero training or planning.

Plans look good on paper, but it's impossible to judge competency. This isn't to say having plans is worthless, but my professional career is very tightly tied to risk management, and I'll just say the hardest part of it is implementation when it matters. The easy part is getting clients to get me a plan to review.

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This.

The only thing that is going to come out of this lawsuit is that the Eastlands will lose the camp, odds are a developer will be the beneficiary of the lawsuit, and a bunch of other camps are likely going to be priced out of business due to insurance rates and the threats of lawsuits the next time something horrible and tragic like this happens. Lawyers will get rich(er). The state will come in and throw some money at the counties and tell them they have to have a flood warning system, which will be a good oucome. But that will be the only good outcome in the grand scheme of things.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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Sir, it is quite obvious that you are very involved, up to speed, and know what has transpired. State your case and let folks watch it play out. You have given lots of info here, let it stand for itself. There is no need to bash folks here when they have a different perspective than yourself. Every one of us feels for you and yours, lets take a step back and let it fall where it falls.

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Fair enough. Do you agree with accusing the parents of being ina oersonal vendetta for money as has been posted here? Or posting false info about the parents not testifying? Is that "bashing"?
Or are you just critical of me? Will you tell them to shut up and let things work out? How passive aggressive of you.

May I ask did you read the links I provided?

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What I am saying is this forum, here on Texags, Is this where you want to do this? State your case and let it take place in real time. If everything is as you say it is it should be over in 10 minutes and then y'all can talk amongst each other how high and mightier you are because the Eastland's ignored safety for a 100 years. Why were you and others not doing anything about this 10 years ago. Is that negligence? No, you never thought it could happen either.

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The tone of your post is incredibly revealing. I know of nobody who will be happy about what if anything happens to the Eastlands. Just don't read my posts. Itmappears mind is already made up that this is some kind of with hint to destroy the Eastlands and get some cash. And that is so far from the truth.

And the last thing my family and the other victims families is to feel "high and mightier" about anything regarding this.

I feel for you Dermdoc, I really do. There just has to be a more civil way. See ya tomorrow. Try and bend that knee tonight and talk to the big guy and ask again that he make all of us be better.
Praying


For everyone

That doesn't say "anywhere there is danger". It says where you KNOW it floods. And yes. If you KNOW it floods you don't build things there.
We knew where the river flooded on our place for 150 years. In 1978 it exceeded the flood plain. It made news all over San Antonio, Austin and all over the hill country.
That flood did not affect Camp Mystic at all like it did downstream, but folks upstream certainly should have thought.."Hey the Guadalupe downstream just a few miles just had an unprecedented flood event that far exceeded the flood plain….maybe we should think about that happening here." Right?
We learned from that 1978 flood and didn't build stuff on our place knowing what the river can do.

The tone of your post is incredibly revealing.

Sorry sometimes I post fast...time to go home.

Really Derm...I'm praying for you.

Gunny456 said:

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That doesn't say "anywhere there is danger". It says where you KNOW it floods. And yes. If you KNOW it floods you don't build things there.
We knew where the river flooded on our place for 150 years. In 1978 it exceeded the flood plain. It made news all over San Antonio, Austin and all over the hill country.
That flood did not affect Camp Mystic at all like it did downstream, but folks upstream certainly should have thought.."Hey the Guadalupe downstream just a few miles just had an unprecedented flood event that far exceeded the flood plain….maybe we should think about that happening here." Right?
We learned from that 1978 flood and didn't build stuff on our place knowing what the river can do.

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We will have to agree to disagree