*****Official RPI and Seed Watch Thread*****

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tjack16
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9:35p, 5/2/26
AG
5-2 or better = National seed lock
3-4 or 4-3 = regional host lock
2-5 = host bubble (and probably on the wrong side of it if certain teams finish strong)

That's just my guesstimation. I think we win tomorrow and finish 4-3. That would put us at about the 8-10 seed range and I'd say #9 overall would be a safe bet
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fireinthehole
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6:06p, 5/3/26
Should we cancel the PV game? Our RPI will drop just playing them.
You are the world, we are the USA, don't mess with us and we won't blow your $hit away.
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Luigi Vampa
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In reply to fireinthehole • 6:37p, 5/3/26
AG
fireinthehole said:
Should we cancel the PV game? Our RPI will drop just playing them.

20% chance of rain on Tuesday. We're drafting up the cancelation memo as we speak out of abundance of caution for our student athletes. Can't ever be too cautious, y'know?
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Detective Jake Peralta
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6:37p, 5/3/26
AG
Big update coming tomorrow morning after the DSR and KPI update, but let's just say that ball landing foul and the ensuing double play were massive for the cause.

In the meantime, everyone pray for rain on Tuesday
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58-7
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 9:49p, 5/3/26
AG
Detective Jake Peralta said:
Big update coming tomorrow morning after the DSR and KPI update, but let's just say that ball landing foul and the ensuing double play were massive for the cause.

In the meantime, everyone pray for rain on Tuesday

Hacopian's ball landing foul and the just prior screw job on Grahovac were massive in game 2 loss. No doubt today's win is massive in keeping us in the running for a top 8. And I'd love to cancel the PV game, need some time for a few players to heal up.
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Mr.Ackar07
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10:16p, 5/3/26
Aggies are currently 8th in RPI, 16 points ahead of #11 Southern Miss. The PVAM game will drop us to at least 11th in RPI. Maybe even 12th behind Florida who we are 53 points ahead of.
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tjack16
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 10:22p, 5/3/26
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:
Aggies are currently 8th in RPI, 16 points ahead of #11 Southern Miss. The PVAM game will drop us to at least 11th in RPI. Maybe even 12th behind Florida who we are 53 points ahead of.


There is one way to fix that. Win both series against the Mississippi schools
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levimod
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11:25p, 5/3/26
AG
We scheduled the game. Surely we knew it might not be great for RPI.

Now we have:
Alumni and othe fans planning on coming in for the game.
Aggie players that will get a chance to play (plus parents).
PVAM players that get to play on Olsen (plus parents)

It was unusual and a bit of a reach when TFG did it a couple years ago. We were surprised and then applauded when he gave the shaft to the little guys, then we were shocked and scandalized when he gave us the shaft shortly thereafter.

How about we play the games we agreed to play and not pull some Snook Cemetery bull*****
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twk
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 7:28a, 5/4/26
AG
Mr.Ackar07 said:
Aggies are currently 8th in RPI, 16 points ahead of #11 Southern Miss. The PVAM game will drop us to at least 11th in RPI. Maybe even 12th behind Florida who we are 53 points ahead of.

I'm not too worried about that. It's the SEC record that matters. We need to at least go 3-3 against the Mississippi schools to have a good chance. Win both series and we are a lock.
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BusterAg
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:25a, 5/4/26
AG
tjack16 said:
Mr.Ackar07 said:
Aggies are currently 8th in RPI, 16 points ahead of #11 Southern Miss. The PVAM game will drop us to at least 11th in RPI. Maybe even 12th behind Florida who we are 53 points ahead of.


There is one way to fix that. Win both series against the Mississippi schools

And / or win the SEC tourney.
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fireinthehole
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10:36a, 5/4/26
Cancel the damn PV game now that we have a chance to host.
You are the world, we are the USA, don't mess with us and we won't blow your $hit away.
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Detective Jake Peralta
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1:24p, 5/4/26
AG
OP is updated after the weekend's action!

SUMMARY: Everyone exhale. Auburn came in and meant business on Saturday, handing the Ags their first series loss since the second weekend of conference play. Complete disaster was averted by salvaging Sunday, and as such, A&M's metrics remain within range of a Top 8 seed. Barely.

There's still a lot of work to do, but the Ags certainly still control their own destiny in their quest to have the right to host until Omaha. Many have asked what the "magic number" is to clinch. I feel pretty certain that two more SEC wins should have us hosting a Regional. That bubble is very soft.

It's not as clear with the top 8 bubble, but winning both of our final SEC series would all but guarantee it. Some think we just need to go 3-3...we very well could get a top 8 seed with that finish, but it is leaving a lot up to chance.

If you haven't heard, our RPI will drop no matter what if/when the game against PVAMU, but shouldn't go any lower than about 13 as long as A&M wins. The good news is that number will go right back up with a series win in Oxford this weekend, and the committee also has KPI and DSR to look at (those shouldn't be as influenced by one game against a bad opponent). Keep praying for rain!

Texas A&M Snapshot:
35-10 (15-8, 2nd in SEC)
RPI: 8 (-3 from last week)
ELO: 9 (-3)
KPI: 8 (-2)
DSR: 5 (-1)
PEAR NET: 4 (no change)
SoS: 24 (+8)

Q1: 12-9
Q2: 0-0
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 16-0

TL;DR: The Ags picked up five Q1 wins this weekend thanks to LSU moving up to 55, Va Tech moving up to 36, and taking 1/3 against Auburn. Only three teams in the country have more Q1 wins than A&M at the moment.

Updated Seed List:



Potential A&M Path to Omaha:
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Mr.Ackar07
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 1:36p, 5/4/26
We will probably be 4th in the SEC pecking order coming seeding time having lost home series to both Georgia and Auburn, and even though we swept tu, that is their only losing weekend this year.

UCLA should be a lock for the 1 overall seed.

UNC and Georgia Tech are probably locks for a top 8 seed also.

That is 6 of the 8. The last two will come down to us, Florida St (only 5-9 in Q1), Mississippi St (9-9), Southern Miss (6-6) and Kansas (6-3).

That is not taking into consideration Florida and Ole Miss, and then the RPI gamers USC (0-8) and Oregon St (2-2).

I think if we win the MSU series while avoiding the Ole Miss sweep, we would be a lock for one of those 2 remaining top 8 seeds. Of course, it is probably easier to beat Ole Miss than MSU, so why not just beat them both and not worry about.
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Wabs
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1:48p, 5/4/26
AG
I posted on another thread:

Next 2 SEC series:

6-0: Definitely a top 8 seed
5-1: Most likely a top 8 seed
4-2: Bubble for top 8 seed
3-3: Hosting but not likely a top 8 seed
2-4: Likely to host a regional
1-5: 50/50 to host a regional
0-6: 2 seed somewhere
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to Mr.Ackar07 • 1:51p, 5/4/26
AG
GREAT rundown.

I think my only question is what the committee does with Georgia if they somehow don't win the SEC regular season. They're 18-6 and finish vs LSU and at Auburn, so it's likely a moot point. But their RPI is not worth of a top 8 if they fail to bring home the hardware.

Florida State is going to be an interesting case as well. They have three Q1 opportunities at Clemson this weekend and then host Miami to close. If they go 5-1, all of a sudden that horrible weekend at Stanford is forgotten and forgiven with a 19-11 ACC record.
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W
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1:53p, 5/4/26
AG
it would be tough to take if the Ags finish 18-11 in the league

and don't get a top 8

A&M's 9-4 road record could be the ace-in-the-hole for the final top 8 slot

plus the neutral site wins over VT and ASU -- since both should be regional teams
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Fairview20
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In reply to W • 1:58p, 5/4/26
AG
Yeah that weekend in Arlington has aged well. ASU has turned into one of the best teams in the Big 12 and VT is solid too. UCLA is on an insane run and even though we were run ruled it doesn't look that bad considering they have lived up to the hype and then some.
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to W • 2:01p, 5/4/26
AG
If A&M finishes 18-11 without getting swept, they would have series wins over (RPI ranks):
  • #3 Texas
  • #9 Mississippi State
  • #12 Florida
  • #13 Ole Miss
That would be VERY hard to pass up or match.
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Sq 17
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In reply to twk • 7:35a, 5/5/26
Top 3 possibly 4 SEC teams will be 1-8
Need a little help and have somebody push Auburn below us and make sure state doesn't overtake us
Optimally tu hits a cold streak and falls to 4/5 and a step below the Ags in most metrics
Tourney could be interesting because IMO
3 is top 8
4 is on the 8/9 line
5 is hosting at 11/12
6 is on the bubble to host
There's currently not a lot of separation between 2-5
And there are 3 really good teams tied at 6th
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Mr.Ackar07
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9:43a, 5/5/26
The official penalty should the Ags win against PVAM tonight is -35 RPI points dropping us to 11th before considering the outcomes of other games.
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HJack20
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12:25p, 5/5/26
AG
If MSU and A&M are in contention for one of the last top 8 seeds, winning that series is going to be huge. Dropping 2 at home against them would be a tough sell.
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Sq 17
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In reply to HJack20 • 1:12p, 5/5/26
Having home losses to both MSU and Auburn could damage the resume
Just glad we didn't get swept

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Detective Jake Peralta
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2:47p, 5/5/26
AG
D1's latest projections have been released:
https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-may-5/

They also have A&M holding onto the last top 8 seed, matched with #9 Coastal Carolina
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TempleAg97
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3:46p, 5/5/26
AG
With few exceptions, these projections go almost strictly by RPI. When we drop to RPI 12 for destroying Prairie View, will we then drop out of a top 8 national seed spot?

I know that we have the Mississippi schools that will still adjust our RPI. But it seems like whoever is scheduling #300 RPI team should be fired.
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twk
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In reply to TempleAg97 • 4:11p, 5/5/26
AG
TempleAg97 said:
With few exceptions, these projections go almost strictly by RPI. When we drop to RPI 12 for destroying Prairie View, will we then drop out of a top 8 national seed spot?

I know that we have the Mississippi schools that will still adjust our RPI. But it seems like whoever is scheduling #300 RPI team should be fired.

RPI is important, but it's not the only factor. Georgia is 16 in the RPI but 3 in the projections. If we finish first, second, or third in the SEC, it's highly likely that we get a national seed. Fourth, and it gets a lot trickier.
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91AggieLawyer
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In reply to twk • 5:07p, 5/5/26
AG
twk said:
TempleAg97 said:
With few exceptions, these projections go almost strictly by RPI. When we drop to RPI 12 for destroying Prairie View, will we then drop out of a top 8 national seed spot?

I know that we have the Mississippi schools that will still adjust our RPI. But it seems like whoever is scheduling #300 RPI team should be fired.

RPI is important, but it's not the only factor. Georgia is 16 in the RPI but 3 in the projections. If we finish first, second, or third in the SEC, it's highly likely that we get a national seed. Fourth, and it gets a lot trickier.


I don't think we have to finish that high. I think all we have to do is not lose tonight and not get swept. We may drop to 13- but we'll almost certainly get a national seed.
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TempleAg97
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In reply to twk • 5:29p, 5/5/26
AG
twk said:
TempleAg97 said:
With few exceptions, these projections go almost strictly by RPI. When we drop to RPI 12 for destroying Prairie View, will we then drop out of a top 8 national seed spot?

I know that we have the Mississippi schools that will still adjust our RPI. But it seems like whoever is scheduling #300 RPI team should be fired.

RPI is important, but it's not the only factor. Georgia is 16 in the RPI but 3 in the projections. If we finish first, second, or third in the SEC, it's highly likely that we get a national seed. Fourth, and it gets a lot trickier.


I've been following RPI since RPI existed so I get that. Georgia is a unique situation with them likely finishing first in conference with an RPI hovering around 20.

I realize that we can still get where we need to be and our conference record too might play into it. But I still hate that we could win 18 conference games and not get a national seed because we dropped four spots in RPI due to scheduling.

We also know that it's not a science and they pick and choose metrics they want. So again we don't need to give them reasons.
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Jarrin Jay
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In reply to fireinthehole • 7:05p, 5/5/26
AG
fireinthehole said:
Should we cancel the PV game? Our RPI will drop just playing them.


Imagine if we lost the game?!?!?!!!

We needed to play the game and win 20-4 (currently 4-1 PV).
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Jarrin Jay • 7:26p, 5/5/26
AG
Jarrin Jay said:
fireinthehole said:
Should we cancel the PV game? Our RPI will drop just playing them.


Imagine if we lost the game?!?!?!!!

We needed to play the game and win 20-4 (currently 4-1 PV).

Game is basically a wash RPI-wise if we just win, whether by 1 or by 100 doesn't matter. A loss hurts a bit but it's not a total disaster. It would erode all the margin we've built up for sure...
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W
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9:55p, 5/5/26
AG
how much of a threat is Alabama in jumping ahead of A&M for a top 8?

A&M's big edge is conference mark: 15-8 vs. 13-11

Bama's big edge is non-conference SoS: #25 vs. 215

need Carolina to not rollover this weekend
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Detective Jake Peralta
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In reply to W • 10:05p, 5/5/26
AG
Their loss to Troy tonight certainly didn't help the cause. Their three Q3 losses are also the most of anyone that would potentially be considered right now.

They're my (and D1's) #11 overall seed right now, so they're definitely within striking distance, but I think they need to finish 5-1 to have a shot.
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Detective Jake Peralta
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10:09p, 5/5/26
AG
About as good as we could've hoped for tonight given the circumstances. RPI dropped to 11, but Bama and Coastal lost, LSU looks like they're going to win and stay Q1, and Kansas and Oregon State are flirting with bad losses.
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TyHolden
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10:30p, 5/5/26
AG
10am manana
I hope I did not offend anybody with this post. If I did, please come see me at my address in my profile so we can talk.
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t - cam
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In reply to Detective Jake Peralta • 11:10p, 5/5/26
AG
Detective Jake Peralta said:
About as good as we could've hoped for tonight given the circumstances. RPI dropped to 11, but Bama and Coastal lost, LSU looks like they're going to win and stay Q1, and Kansas and Oregon State are flirting with bad losses.


Kansas lost.
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MadDog73
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11:11p, 5/5/26
AG
Kansas lost in extras to Creighton.
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