Hey! No slander allowed about #146... you're talking to a USAFA grad

I kid I kid.. all in good fun. Feel good about OSU's resume looking worse than ours. Especially if my birds steal a game or two.

twk said:

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TempleAg97 said:

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With few exceptions, these projections go almost strictly by RPI. When we drop to RPI 12 for destroying Prairie View, will we then drop out of a top 8 national seed spot?

I know that we have the Mississippi schools that will still adjust our RPI. But it seems like whoever is scheduling #300 RPI team should be fired.

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RPI is important, but it's not the only factor. Georgia is 16 in the RPI but 3 in the projections. If we finish first, second, or third in the SEC, it's highly likely that we get a national seed. Fourth, and it gets a lot trickier.

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I would add if there's is very little difference between the 4&5 then neither gets a top 8 but if the 4 separates itself and is closer to the 3 then it likely gets the last national seed especially if it has really good SOS & Winning a game or two at Hoover might actually be the difference

Our RPI fell to 11 after playing those jabronis last night.

Who cares, we just need to win these last two series. That's all that matters.

Just shows why seeding should not blindly follow RPI.

greg.w.h said:

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They need transparency on how selections work and should probably drop the lowest five opponents since otherwise it will get worse.

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That is an excellent idea, transparency will never happen though

HoustonAg2106 said:

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greg.w.h said:

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They need transparency on how selections work and should probably drop the lowest five opponents since otherwise it will get worse.

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That is an excellent idea, transparency will never happen though

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It always is a goal even if the bigger schools don't want to be found out for their "higher" goals of monopolization and monetization…

Emilio Fantastico said:

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All I know is we have not played well at all in the first game of the weekends the two times we had our Tuesday games cancelled. It was almost as if the team was rusty from not playing. So I will take the RPI hit this week if it means the team plays better this weekend.

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Interesting observation. And Ole Miss did not have a midweek game this week, they also got run ruled in their last Friday game. Hopefully/maybe be a good sign?

On Warren Nolan's team prediction sheet it has us finishing the season 2-4 and having an RPI of 17.

I'm not sure how their prediction method works though because it has us taking 2/3 at Ole Miss but getting swept by MSU at home.

I'd be curious to see what it thinks our RPI would be by going 3-3. I would've thought an SEC record of 18-11 would be good enough for a national seed but maybe not.

I'm intrigued by the committee's usage of DSR this year. IMO that is a much better metric on team strength than RPI, and it shows as our current DSR rank is #6.

Fairview20 said:

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On Warren Nolan's team prediction sheet it has us finishing the season 2-4 and having an RPI of 17.

I'm not sure how their prediction method works though because it has us taking 2/3 at Ole Miss but getting swept by MSU at home.

I'd be curious to see what it thinks our RPI would be by going 3-3. I would've thought an SEC record of 18-11 would be good enough for a national seed but maybe not.

I'm intrigued by the committee's usage of DSR this year. IMO that is a much better metric on team strength than RPI, and it shows as our current DSR rank is #6.

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How does their prediction sheet work? Predicting a sweep at home seems silly. Of course it could happen, but how do you predict it?

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Fairview20 said:

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On Warren Nolan's team prediction sheet it has us finishing the season 2-4 and having an RPI of 17.

I'm not sure how their prediction method works though because it has us taking 2/3 at Ole Miss but getting swept by MSU at home.

I'd be curious to see what it thinks our RPI would be by going 3-3. I would've thought an SEC record of 18-11 would be good enough for a national seed but maybe not.

I'm intrigued by the committee's usage of DSR this year. IMO that is a much better metric on team strength than RPI, and it shows as our current DSR rank is #6.

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How does their prediction sheet work? Predicting a sweep at home seems silly. Of course it could happen, but how do you predict it?

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That's what I don't know. I would think home field should factor in but it doesn't appear like it does. It may be just as simple as they're ranked higher than us in RPI so it automatically counts them as losses.

Fairview20 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Fairview20 said:

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On Warren Nolan's team prediction sheet it has us finishing the season 2-4 and having an RPI of 17.

I'm not sure how their prediction method works though because it has us taking 2/3 at Ole Miss but getting swept by MSU at home.

I'd be curious to see what it thinks our RPI would be by going 3-3. I would've thought an SEC record of 18-11 would be good enough for a national seed but maybe not.

I'm intrigued by the committee's usage of DSR this year. IMO that is a much better metric on team strength than RPI, and it shows as our current DSR rank is #6.

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How does their prediction sheet work? Predicting a sweep at home seems silly. Of course it could happen, but how do you predict it?

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That's what I don't know. I would think home field should factor in but it doesn't appear like it does. It may be just as simple as they're ranked higher than us in RPI so it automatically counts them as losses.

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Well why do they predict a sweep of us at home and us only winning 2 out of 3 at Ole Miss? I know you don't know just pointing out that tool seems like something to ignore

TexasAGGIEinAR said:

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Our RPI fell to 11 after playing those jabronis last night.

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Just imagine where we might have fallen if Bond hadn't pulled our asses out of the fire!

I agree that dropping a few of the lowest RPI games on the schedule (when calculating end of year RPi) is probably a good idea.

At a minimum I hope all of those that cancelled games still had to pay their opponents. Maybe 2 or 3x.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Fairview20 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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Fairview20 said:

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On Warren Nolan's team prediction sheet it has us finishing the season 2-4 and having an RPI of 17.

I'm not sure how their prediction method works though because it has us taking 2/3 at Ole Miss but getting swept by MSU at home.

I'd be curious to see what it thinks our RPI would be by going 3-3. I would've thought an SEC record of 18-11 would be good enough for a national seed but maybe not.

I'm intrigued by the committee's usage of DSR this year. IMO that is a much better metric on team strength than RPI, and it shows as our current DSR rank is #6.

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How does their prediction sheet work? Predicting a sweep at home seems silly. Of course it could happen, but how do you predict it?

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That's what I don't know. I would think home field should factor in but it doesn't appear like it does. It may be just as simple as they're ranked higher than us in RPI so it automatically counts them as losses.

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Well why do they predict a sweep of us at home and us only winning 2 out of 3 at Ole Miss? I know you don't know just pointing out that tool seems like something to ignore

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you guys are going to kill yourself trying to predict something that can't be understood.

Warren Nolan is an amazing resource for so many things...but the prediction function has always been a little wonky.

I love the simulation tool on PEARatings. It doesn't spit out a projected RPI, but it will give you the projected NET from his model which is a mixture of several advanced metrics.

https://pearatings.com/cbase/d1/simulator

This is a fantastic thread! Best thread on TexAgs right now! Major thanks to the OP and all contributors.