Lester Freamon said:
Is there any info on % positive cases for Texas? I know case counts are increasing but interested to see what effect testing capacity has on it
I know Brazos Valley is around 5% so far
Daily Charts
701,724 Views |
2786 Replies |
Last: 4 yr ago by AggieUSMC
I know Brazos Valley is around 5% so far
I've seen results of CAlifornia, NY, and FLorida antibody test studies. Let's get one done in Texas.dragmagpuff said:Abbott said in his presser that we are sub-10%. I don't know over what time frame that is, though.Lester Freamon said:
Is there any info on % positive cases for Texas? I know case counts are increasing but interested to see what effect testing capacity has on it
Although it's such a big state it's not going to have much value for some areas.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texasLester Freamon said:
Is there any info on % positive cases for Texas? I know case counts are increasing but interested to see what effect testing capacity has on it
Really disappointed by that empty hospitalized column. Would like to see data on total number of cases that have ended up hospitalized in Texas.
Simplified down to one shade of green.
Very nice, thank you!
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
Spring break , then schools shutting down
So whats up with Fort Worth?
This has estimated recoveries and the number of patients in the hospital.
If I’m posting, it’s actually Mrs GeographyAg.
Mr. GeographyAg is a dedicated lurker.
Mr. GeographyAg is a dedicated lurker.
Is you US daily deaths missing the last two days that were in the mids 2ks?
Mainly, they shut the drive thru testing in favor of just testing as patients showed up at the hospitals. The only thing the US was tracking for a while were severe cases or hospitalizations. Now we are ramping testing again and the numbers are continuing to go up, but we are catching a lot more of the mild cases.ETFan said:
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
Overall, infection rate seems a worthless measure right now as its more driven by testing than anything else. Severe cases, hospitalization, deaths I think are the only meaningful measures now......maybe antibody testing will eventually be a meaningful measure, but right now, no one knows what having antibodies does for you.
Another measure that would be interesting is to measure the economic toll vs number of deaths or severe cases. Saw a report that showed economic shut down is costing 500-600 jobs per death from Covid. If you apply minimum wage, that roughly 16-18mm/yr of wages lost due to shut down for each death......or roughly 1.5mm/death/month. Unfortunately, I think this measure will go down overtime as the deaths pile up and some jobs come back.
It's hard for me to believe that's true given Texas has conducted 315,000 total tests and only 27,000 thousand were positive. The US has tested 6,000,000 with only 1,000,000 positive.Rock1983 said:Mainly, they shut the drive thru testing in favor of just testing as patients showed up at the hospitals. The only thing the US was tracking for a while were severe cases or hospitalizations.ETFan said:
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
That's a high, high percentage of negative tests if only testing severe cases and hospitalizations.
It's hard for me to believe too, considering that there are several pop-up, drive-in, free testing locations in the Houston area. You don't even need to have symptoms to be tested. If you want a test, you can get a test.Complete Idiot said:It's hard for me to believe that's true given Texas has conducted 315,000 total tests and only 27,000 thousand were positive. The US has tested 6,000,000 with only 1,000,000 positive.Rock1983 said:Mainly, they shut the drive thru testing in favor of just testing as patients showed up at the hospitals. The only thing the US was tracking for a while were severe cases or hospitalizations.ETFan said:
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
That's a high, high percentage of negative tests if only testing severe cases and hospitalizations.
https://abc13.com/where-to-get-tested-in-houston-covid-19-testing-coronavirus/6100888/
If I’m posting, it’s actually Mrs GeographyAg.
Mr. GeographyAg is a dedicated lurker.
Mr. GeographyAg is a dedicated lurker.
The peak is exactly 14 days after the county issued their shelter-in-place.ETFan said:
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
Data overload. Included more of the smaller counties across the state to try and get a little more of a picture what all is going on outside the major metros. Tried to arrange by rough geographic areas (sorry El Paso).
As an FYI, the "Greater" areas include counties in the respective metro areas according to Wikipedia.
This last one shows the change in the (mostly) rural parts of the state relative to the larger metro areas.
Source (Cases Over Time by County, 4/29/2020)
As an FYI, the "Greater" areas include counties in the respective metro areas according to Wikipedia.
This last one shows the change in the (mostly) rural parts of the state relative to the larger metro areas.
Source (Cases Over Time by County, 4/29/2020)
More antibody testing?MBAR said:
So whats up with Fort Worth?
What's the deal with Germany, what the heck happened?
The number of new coronavirus cases in Germany rose the most in four days as the government considers further steps to ease restrictions on daily life.
There were 1,627 additional infections in the 24 hours through Thursday morning, taking the total to 161,539, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Fatalities rose by 153 to 6,467 and the death rate inched up to 4% from 3.95% a day earlier, while the number of recovered held at 120,400.
Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to consult with state premiers later on Thursday on whether to lift more of the curbs imposed to stop the disease from spreading. Some regional leaders including North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Armin Laschet have tried to lower expectations, saying it's too early for a significant change in strategy.
The number of new coronavirus cases in Germany rose the most in four days as the government considers further steps to ease restrictions on daily life.
There were 1,627 additional infections in the 24 hours through Thursday morning, taking the total to 161,539, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Fatalities rose by 153 to 6,467 and the death rate inched up to 4% from 3.95% a day earlier, while the number of recovered held at 120,400.
Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to consult with state premiers later on Thursday on whether to lift more of the curbs imposed to stop the disease from spreading. Some regional leaders including North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Armin Laschet have tried to lower expectations, saying it's too early for a significant change in strategy.
They opened up
Their graph has been cycling for a while now with a downward trend mixed with a couple of higher spikes.Duncan Idaho said:
They opened up
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
Can't look at just one day. Even Italy had spikes as they were going down.
ETFan said:
Is you US daily deaths missing the last two days that were in the mids 2ks?
No, that's the day an additional 3k were accounted for.
April 28th, 29th, 30th have all been well over 2k deaths unless I'm mistaken? 2470, 2390, and 2201.Philip J Fry said:ETFan said:
Is you US daily deaths missing the last two days that were in the mids 2ks?
No, that's the day an additional 3k were accounted for.
ETFan said:April 28th, 29th, 30th have all been well over 2k deaths unless I'm mistaken? 2470, 2390, and 2201.Philip J Fry said:ETFan said:
Is you US daily deaths missing the last two days that were in the mids 2ks?
No, that's the day an additional 3k were accounted for.
Yes they have been according to worldometer.
PJYoung said:ETFan said:April 28th, 29th, 30th have all been well over 2k deaths unless I'm mistaken? 2470, 2390, and 2201.Philip J Fry said:ETFan said:
Is you US daily deaths missing the last two days that were in the mids 2ks?
No, that's the day an additional 3k were accounted for.
Yes they have been according to worldometer.
Yeah, but this was from when they added 3000+ deaths from earlier that they later determined to be covid
Rock1983 said:Mainly, they shut the drive thru testing in favor of just testing as patients showed up at the hospitals. The only thing the US was tracking for a while were severe cases or hospitalizations. Now we are ramping testing again and the numbers are continuing to go up, but we are catching a lot more of the mild cases.ETFan said:
What caused the sharp drop in Houston? Effects of SD/shutdown finally kicking in or reporting?
Overall, infection rate seems a worthless measure right now as its more driven by testing than anything else. Severe cases, hospitalization, deaths I think are the only meaningful measures now......maybe antibody testing will eventually be a meaningful measure, but right now, no one knows what having antibodies does for you.
Another measure that would be interesting is to measure the economic toll vs number of deaths or severe cases. Saw a report that showed economic shut down is costing 500-600 jobs per death from Covid. If you apply minimum wage, that roughly 16-18mm/yr of wages lost due to shut down for each death......or roughly 1.5mm/death/month. Unfortunately, I think this measure will go down overtime as the deaths pile up and some jobs come back.
The ratio of new jobless claims per death is actually around 2000:1 in Texas.
(Known) active cases are relatively flat with increase testing. Hospitalization totals are the lowest since 4/13.
Due to increased testing, we have an issue with total cases. So while it looks like we are continuing to see growth, a better indicator is positive %, which is decreasing among most states.
Texas is likely to continue to see cases grow, but positive % relatively stable at 5%.
New York continues to recover well.
And lastly, Florida is one of the most controversial states to reopen. However, declining positive % and declining case count.
Due to increased testing, we have an issue with total cases. So while it looks like we are continuing to see growth, a better indicator is positive %, which is decreasing among most states.
Texas is likely to continue to see cases grow, but positive % relatively stable at 5%.
New York continues to recover well.
And lastly, Florida is one of the most controversial states to reopen. However, declining positive % and declining case count.
Where is this data from?
I use two sources. Covid tracking has a lot more detailed I formation and by state, the 1point3acres site does a good job of doing real time tracking.
https://covidtracking.com/
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
https://covidtracking.com/
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
It appears that the deaths data is lifting off the backend of the IHME model.
This model from https://covid19-projections.com/ appears to be doing a better job of predicting the uncertainty on the tail.
Day of the week trend basically in line with the last 4 weeks.
I like watching this one because in NYC they are tracking deaths on the day it happened, not on the day it was reported. As you can see here, the peak in actual deaths in NYC was about 17 days after the lock down. However, the reported peak looks later due to the lag in reporting.
Data as of 5/3/20, as published by the Texas DSHS. One point to note, it takes at least a day for the counties to report their stats and for those to be posted to the state website
Yikes, numbers not really looking great. Will be interesting to see what the curve does over the next couple of weeks.
Featured Stories
See All
5:25
10m ago
433
4:59
45m ago
915
Bucky McMillan recaps 2-0 week as regular season winds down
by Billy Liucci
5:15
1h ago
1.3k
Texas A&M baseball climbs to No. 23 in latest D1Baseball Top 25
by Richard Zane