This entire Spacex IPO appears to be a giant pump and dump so it's VC guys can cash out and leave the market holding the bag. Indexes and fund managers need to stay far far away. IPO is at 100 revenue, with shady contracts with Google and other investing companies... If this is true, how bad can it be for the market?
Is Spacex is a giant pump and dump scheme?
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Last: 3 days ago by hph6203
Aren't early investors and employees with issued stock banned for 180 days from selling after the IPO? I think those are the terms in the spaceX IPO setup.
No, they have negotiated some bull sheet release schedule 
The lock-up release agreement details from the SEC Form S-1 filing include: [1, 2, 3]
The lock-up release agreement details from the SEC Form S-1 filing include: [1, 2, 3]
- First Release (After Q2 Earnings): Insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares once the company reports its first earnings as a public company. [1]
- Performance Trigger: If the stock trades 30% or more above the IPO price for 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days during this initial window, insiders can unlock and sell an additional 10%. [1]
- Rolling Time-Based Unlocks: Staggered time-based dates occur at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, with up to 7% of additional shares unlocked at each interval. [1, 2]
- Second Release (After Q3 Earnings): Insiders are permitted to sell up to an additional 28% following the company's Q3 earnings call. [1]
- Full Expiration: All remaining share restrictions end after 180 days. [1]
I ain't touching this with a 10 foot pole.
SteveA said:
No, they have negotiated some bull sheet release schedule
The lock-up release agreement details from the SEC Form S-1 filing include: [1, 2, 3]
- First Release (After Q2 Earnings): Insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares once the company reports its first earnings as a public company. [1]
- Performance Trigger: If the stock trades 30% or more above the IPO price for 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days during this initial window, insiders can unlock and sell an additional 10%. [1]
- Rolling Time-Based Unlocks: Staggered time-based dates occur at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, with up to 7% of additional shares unlocked at each interval. [1, 2]
- Second Release (After Q3 Earnings): Insiders are permitted to sell up to an additional 28% following the company's Q3 earnings call. [1]
- Full Expiration: All remaining share restrictions end after 180 days. [1]
Considering the ratio of insider and early investor shares to public float it would seem to me that not just dumping all of those into the available open market at 180 days is probably a more prudent move.
As for the "shady contracts" it's hard to know since as a private company these would have likely gone under the radar. Public companies previously doing business with them might have been under no obligation to name them. We've never been able to truly look under the hood
I think it's hard to say pump and dump when they've been around 20 years and have completely revolutionized spaceflight. Is their IPO over valued? Sure you can make that argument, but if you want to do a pump and dump scheme there are a lot better ways to do it than building rockets and sending people to space.
Now, if you want to make the argument that OpenAI and Anthropic are pump and dump, I'll listen...
Now, if you want to make the argument that OpenAI and Anthropic are pump and dump, I'll listen...
I think the SpaceX IPO is being used to get rid of debt from other adventures (xAI, twitter, etc.) and putting into the one thing that's been partially successful/has a future making money. I also see this as an attempt by insiders/investors to fleece the public and get their money back.
As others said, if it was just the rockets/satellite aspects? I'd throw money at it. By lumping everything else into it? Yeah...no.
~egon
As others said, if it was just the rockets/satellite aspects? I'd throw money at it. By lumping everything else into it? Yeah...no.
~egon
I agree with you, and would definitely be in if it was just rockets and starlink. The inclusion of xAI is off putting to me. That and Elon stocks trade irrationally in my opinion but that is a whole different discussion.
Quote:
I think the SpaceX IPO is being used to get rid of debt from other adventures (xAI, twitter, etc.) and putting into the one thing that's been partially successful/has a future making money. I also see this as an attempt by insiders/investors to fleece the public and get their money back.
As others said, if it was just the rockets/satellite aspects? I'd throw money at it. By lumping everything else into it? Yeah...no.
Agree. Twitter's money men rolled in to xAI, which is now rolled in to Spacex. The inflated valuation will allow them to get cash back out.
Since dang near no one here is getting any IPO shares just watch as the day unfolds.
OldArmyCT said:
Since dang near no one here is getting any IPO shares just watch as the day unfolds.
Why not?
AustinAg2K said:
I think it's hard to say pump and dump when they've been around 20 years and have completely revolutionized spaceflight. Is their IPO over valued? Sure you can make that argument, but if you want to do a pump and dump scheme there are a lot better ways to do it than building rockets and sending people to space.
Now, if you want to make the argument that OpenAI and Anthropic are pump and dump, I'll listen...
You think Anthropic and OpenAI are pump and dump schemes and SpaceX is clean. That's funny.
Doesn't IPO stand for Its Probably Overpriced
SteveA said:
This entire Spacex IPO appears to be a giant pump and dump so it's VC guys can cash out and leave the market holding the bag. Indexes and fund managers need to stay far far away. IPO is at 100 revenue, with shady contracts with Google and other investing companies... If this is true, how bad can it be for the market?
The IPO price is outrageous based on any objective metric but that matters as much as BTC valuation. This is a meme asset and I bet the price will be higher the first day and will climb for a few weeks until folks start fearing what happens as more shares float. Some folks will cash out shares by December but it's difficult to see how the market will respond. I'm buying the IPO but I consider it gambling, not investing.
I'm not going to bet against him, but I'm also not going to bet with him.
This is pretty eye opening and concerning:
I have way more faith in his Space, Starlink, and Tesla business than xAI. Of course, AI is going to become intertwined in all of these at some point and you won't be able to separate any of it especially once he folds Tesla into SpaceX which is likely coming next.
This is pretty eye opening and concerning:
Quote:
The company has three units: The space business had $4.1 billion in revenue last year and about $657 million in losses. Its Starlink satellite internet business pulled in $11.4 billion in revenue and turned a profit. Meanwhile, xAI had $3.2 billion in revenue and $6.4 billion in losses.
SpaceX touted in the filing that it sees a total addressable market, a business term for potential revenue opportunities, of $28.5 trillion, the largest such figure of its kind. Most of that$26.5 trillionis in AI.
I have way more faith in his Space, Starlink, and Tesla business than xAI. Of course, AI is going to become intertwined in all of these at some point and you won't be able to separate any of it especially once he folds Tesla into SpaceX which is likely coming next.
All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
you are so based. By robbing from his own share holders you mean created significant value for millions of people? You are a joke and your posts reinforce that.Gordo14 said:
All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
so roughly equal to the total GDP of the US?
Seems like a Cathie Wood estimate.
Seems like a Cathie Wood estimate.
I may be nuts, but got 20 shares at $150. My thoughts now is to buy 2 to 6 shares a month or so going forward for years and just leave them be.
Some friends of mine laughed when I bought Tesla at $1,800 before the first split in 2020. Now each share then is now 15 shares with a market value of $6,090. "Analysis of the last 10 years shows Tesla returning an annualized growth rate of roughly 36%."
In a few years, Musk is going to merge Tesla with XAI/SpaceX/Starlink, and Neuralink into a15 trillion-dollar company,
Neuralink may be the most exciting of all of his companies,
It's only money, aren't going to bury it with me,
Some friends of mine laughed when I bought Tesla at $1,800 before the first split in 2020. Now each share then is now 15 shares with a market value of $6,090. "Analysis of the last 10 years shows Tesla returning an annualized growth rate of roughly 36%."
In a few years, Musk is going to merge Tesla with XAI/SpaceX/Starlink, and Neuralink into a15 trillion-dollar company,
Neuralink may be the most exciting of all of his companies,
It's only money, aren't going to bury it with me,
The difference with Tesla is people were laughing at you.
This go round those people bought the IPO. Two relatives in two days asking if I bought and telling me how many shares they got. Take that for what it's worth.
This go round those people bought the IPO. Two relatives in two days asking if I bought and telling me how many shares they got. Take that for what it's worth.
Proposition Joe said:
The difference with Tesla is people were laughing at you.
This go round those people bought the IPO. Two relatives in two days asking if I bought and telling me how many shares they got. Take that for what it's worth.
We'll see whether it is a good plan to buy or not in about 5 to 10 years.
I wish I have bought Tesla 10 years ago at $17.
I may actually buy a few shares after the hubbub and if it drops a little. And then just let it ride. Will be in my fun account.
I assume one of my funds will pick up some shares as well.
I assume one of my funds will pick up some shares as well.
Gordo14 said:
All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
Regardless if you think Musk is a god or a fraud, the question in this forum is how to make money off your analysis.
This is the way I see it. Tesla EPS has been flat for the past 5 years; no growth. As for fully autonomous level 4 performance that has been promised as just around the corner since 2015, Tesla is not even in the top 10 companies with level 4 autonomous vehicles deployed; not good. But here is the thing; Tesla PE is 400. 400!
This gives me confidence the market will support an insane valuation for SpaceX, even more insane than where it is today. The level of enthusiasm for SpaceX is much greater than Tesla. So if Tesla can command a 400 PE with no EPS growth in 5 years and not delivering on FSD, I'm feeling pretty confident owning SpaceX right now.
JohnClark929 said:Gordo14 said:
All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
Regardless if you think Musk is a god or a fraud, the question in this forum is how to make money off your analysis.
This is the way I see it. Tesla EPS has been flat for the past 5 years; no growth. As for fully autonomous level 4 performance that has been promised as just around the corner since 2015, Tesla is not even in the top 10 companies with level 4 autonomous vehicles deployed; not good. But here is the thing; Tesla PE is 400. 400!
This gives me confidence the market will support an insane valuation for SpaceX, even more insane than where it is today. The level of enthusiasm for SpaceX is much greater than Tesla. So if Tesla can command a 400 PE with no EPS growth in 5 years and not delivering on FSD, I'm feeling pretty confident owning SpaceX right now.
I'm not going to argue with you because I dont know but this is highly surprising. Are you grouping all other makers into one group and then comparing that just to Tesla?
woodiewood1 said:Proposition Joe said:
The difference with Tesla is people were laughing at you.
This go round those people bought the IPO. Two relatives in two days asking if I bought and telling me how many shares they got. Take that for what it's worth.
We'll see whether it is a good plan to buy or not in about 5 to 10 years.
I wish I have bought Tesla 10 years ago at $17.
No doubt. I just feel like we are in a different investing era. SpaceX has been available to buy two dozen different ways the last decade. It's tough to look at the financials and see where the price makes sense, but I know "stock market goes up".
Just seems like everything has been so gamified with investing and this is the masses buying just because they can.
YouBet said:JohnClark929 said:Gordo14 said:
All of Elon's companies are financially engineered to deliver the highest net worth for him as if the stock is the real product. The merger with xai, the waiving of exchange rules (including Nasdaq1000 rules), the compensation packages (looking forward to the Tesla SpaceX merger at a value that prints his Tesla compensation packages - similarly to how Tesla saved Solarcity for Elon), the "futurism" promises he's been recycling for around 2 decades. At the end of the day, the merger with xai makes it much less attractive and much riskier of an investment in my view. But Elon needed to dilute all the other investors in SpaceX, so we're definitely all in on data centers in space.
It's certainly, an interesting case study because he's robbed from his own shareholders at every turn and made decisions that are purely for his own number go up goals, but the shareholders don't care because they all are willing to pay massive multiples on his companies irregardless of underlying financial performance. Elon is the first to realize if you promise a Mars colony by 2024 in 2018, everyone believes Mars is right around the corner in 2026.
Regardless if you think Musk is a god or a fraud, the question in this forum is how to make money off your analysis.
This is the way I see it. Tesla EPS has been flat for the past 5 years; no growth. As for fully autonomous level 4 performance that has been promised as just around the corner since 2015, Tesla is not even in the top 10 companies with level 4 autonomous vehicles deployed; not good. But here is the thing; Tesla PE is 400. 400!
This gives me confidence the market will support an insane valuation for SpaceX, even more insane than where it is today. The level of enthusiasm for SpaceX is much greater than Tesla. So if Tesla can command a 400 PE with no EPS growth in 5 years and not delivering on FSD, I'm feeling pretty confident owning SpaceX right now.
I'm not going to argue with you because I dont know but this is highly surprising. Are you grouping all other makers into one group and then comparing that just to Tesla?
Yeah, im curious what those 10 companies are. I didn't know there were any car companies close to what teslas can do on that front, let alone 10+ that are above them in that capability. I see he used the word "deployed," which doesnt really mean much at this point considering how quickly they've been accelerating this process of late. There's a pretty huge difference between total numbers and quality of those numbers, as well as outlook going forward.
As far as autonomous technology and outlook is concerned, there is no company in better position than Tesla, and it's not even close. Even with the stated delay, that still doesnt mean much when it comes to future outlook considering that they are right now proving just how dominant they are in this market and the promises are now becoming reality. Musk can be a bit optimistic in terms of timing at times, but he isn't not providing what he promised.
I would not bet against Musk either as he tends to meet whatever crazy technical goal he sets out.
But he's practically become a super hero of sorts, Tony Stark in the flesh so to speak.
For that reason I question whether the markets valuations trend towards fantasy especially when so much is future visionary stuff like Elon himself
But he's practically become a super hero of sorts, Tony Stark in the flesh so to speak.
For that reason I question whether the markets valuations trend towards fantasy especially when so much is future visionary stuff like Elon himself
Anyone who thinks Tesla FSD is behind any company is laughable and to think there are 10+ Companies who has level 4 is even more laughable unless you just read the headlines without understanding what it means.
Drop any car on any road in the US and tell it to go to the next city 100 miles away. Tesla will get you there every single time. Every other company would fail miserably. Most likely would not even move.
To say that any company is ahead of Tesla because they have some "Badge" is ill-informed.
SpaceX is over-valued if you look at almost every metric BUT in no way is it a Pump/Dump/Ponzi.
People said this about Tesla and lost badly shorting it. If you think SPaceX is a Pump/Dump, then why not short it/sell a bearish option?
Drop any car on any road in the US and tell it to go to the next city 100 miles away. Tesla will get you there every single time. Every other company would fail miserably. Most likely would not even move.
To say that any company is ahead of Tesla because they have some "Badge" is ill-informed.
SpaceX is over-valued if you look at almost every metric BUT in no way is it a Pump/Dump/Ponzi.
People said this about Tesla and lost badly shorting it. If you think SPaceX is a Pump/Dump, then why not short it/sell a bearish option?
Medaggie said:
Anyone who thinks Tesla FSD is behind any company is laughable and to think there are 10+ Companies who has level 4 is even more laughable unless you just read the headlines without understanding what it means.
Drop any car on any road in the US and tell it to go to the next city 100 miles away. Tesla will get you there every single time. Every other company would fail miserably. Most likely would not even move.
To say that any company is ahead of Tesla because they have some "Badge" is ill-informed.
SpaceX is over-valued if you look at almost every metric BUT in no way is it a Pump/Dump/Ponzi.
People said this about Tesla and lost badly shorting it. If you think SPaceX is a Pump/Dump, then why not short it/sell a bearish option?
"No, Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) cannot reliably navigate a 100-mile trip without driver intervention. While it is highly capable on highways and can complete long stretches autonomously under ideal conditions, the system is legally classified as Level 2. It strictly requires you to actively supervise and be ready to take control at any moment"
I wouldn't short any Elon stock because he's completely disconnected from fundamentals and has a cult-like fandom of buyers that do not value the business on anything more than Musk's wild proclamations of the future.
Musk has tried to pull out all sorts of moves to increase demand via index providers which is certainly a "pump". Furthermore, it is also a "Ponzi-like" because it's completely disentangled from any sort of fundamentals.
The question becomes - can any of his companies actually grow into their valuation over the long term. Musk has routinely shown that whenever one of his companies struggles, he hypes up some new thing as some massive addressable market in order to divert attention away from the mundane realities of his businesses.
If you can keep up the hype while eventually delivering, the stocks may eventually warrant their price. If, however, he cannot maintain that level of hype and/or he cannot deliver on grand promises, eventually the emperor's clothes will be revealed.
Rather than shorting, I simply opt out because shorting involves precision timing. But opting out is a prudent way to not participate at all because all available evidence suggests that Tesla and SpaceX are not attractively priced stocks that suggest high expected returns, quite the opposite.
These companies have more Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles on the Road than Tesla: Baidu, Waymo, WeRide, PonyAI, Avride, Zoox, May Mobility, Nuro, there are others I can't remember
I'm a Tesla stockholder and have been for a long time; although I'm thinking of replacing it in my AI portfolio but that is a different discussion. My point is if Tesla can have a PE of 400 with 5 years of no EPS growth, then SpaceX can also have a ridiculous valuation. I bought SpaceX at $135. The objective is to make money, not to get caught up in pro/anti-Musk dogma.
I'm a Tesla stockholder and have been for a long time; although I'm thinking of replacing it in my AI portfolio but that is a different discussion. My point is if Tesla can have a PE of 400 with 5 years of no EPS growth, then SpaceX can also have a ridiculous valuation. I bought SpaceX at $135. The objective is to make money, not to get caught up in pro/anti-Musk dogma.
JohnClark929 said:
These companies have more Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles on the Road than Tesla: Baidu, Waymo, WeRide, PonyAI, Avride, Zoox, May Mobility, Nuro, there are others I can't remember
I'm a Tesla stockholder and have been for a long time; although I'm thinking of replacing it in my AI portfolio but that is a different discussion. My point is if Tesla can have a PE of 400 with 5 years of no EPS growth, then SpaceX can also have a ridiculous valuation. I bought SpaceX at $135. The objective is to make money, not to get caught up in pro/anti-Musk dogma.
I've never heard of any of these companies aside from Waymo (maybe Baidu), so I assume they are all Chinese companies. And that would make sense if they have more on the road because it's China. One billion people with an auto industry that is backed by the government to pump out as many EV's as possible. They have so many that they can't domestically absorb them which has led to them dumping them on the international market.
But do we actually know there FSD is apples to apples to Tesla?
YouBet said:JohnClark929 said:
These companies have more Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles on the Road than Tesla: Baidu, Waymo, WeRide, PonyAI, Avride, Zoox, May Mobility, Nuro, there are others I can't remember
I'm a Tesla stockholder and have been for a long time; although I'm thinking of replacing it in my AI portfolio but that is a different discussion. My point is if Tesla can have a PE of 400 with 5 years of no EPS growth, then SpaceX can also have a ridiculous valuation. I bought SpaceX at $135. The objective is to make money, not to get caught up in pro/anti-Musk dogma.
I've never heard of any of these companies aside from Waymo (maybe Baidu), so I assume they are all Chinese companies. And that would make sense if they have more on the road because it's China. One billion people with an auto industry that is backed by the government to pump out as many EV's as possible. They have so many that they can't domestically absorb them which has led to them dumping them on the international market.
But do we actually know there FSD is apples to apples to Tesla?
It's not all 'China', both Avride and Nuro have more level 4 autonomous vehicles than Tesla on the road in TEXAS.
'Apples to apples' is Level 2; I don't know the numbers but I would assume Tesla is the world leader at level 2 deployed.
JohnClark929 said:YouBet said:JohnClark929 said:
These companies have more Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles on the Road than Tesla: Baidu, Waymo, WeRide, PonyAI, Avride, Zoox, May Mobility, Nuro, there are others I can't remember
I'm a Tesla stockholder and have been for a long time; although I'm thinking of replacing it in my AI portfolio but that is a different discussion. My point is if Tesla can have a PE of 400 with 5 years of no EPS growth, then SpaceX can also have a ridiculous valuation. I bought SpaceX at $135. The objective is to make money, not to get caught up in pro/anti-Musk dogma.
I've never heard of any of these companies aside from Waymo (maybe Baidu), so I assume they are all Chinese companies. And that would make sense if they have more on the road because it's China. One billion people with an auto industry that is backed by the government to pump out as many EV's as possible. They have so many that they can't domestically absorb them which has led to them dumping them on the international market.
But do we actually know there FSD is apples to apples to Tesla?
It's not all 'China', both Avride and Nuro have more level 4 autonomous vehicles than Tesla on the road in TEXAS.
'Apples to apples' is Level 2; I don't know the numbers but I would assume Tesla is the world leader at level 2 deployed.
Are these two the trucking companies that have been testing Level 4 then? Not passenger cars, right?
Those are both passenger cars.
The trucking one is Aurora.
The trucking one is Aurora.
JohnClark929 said:
Those are both passenger cars.
The trucking one is Aurora.
Aurora, yes.
Interesting. Literally never heard of these two but way more advanced than Tesla. That's a feat. Will look them up.
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