Heineken-Ashi said:

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BTC - Completed ending diagonal to finish a 3-wave corrective bounce. ED's tend to reverse to their point of origin quickly. It can do that and and possibly hold. But it's not a bullish start. At best, it would lead to lots more choppy overlap over the coming months, maybe even halfway through the year. But also a good chance it leads to new lows. Either way, I'm trading the reversal to $85k using IBIT like I posted about this morning. If the move down is not impulsive, I'll sell at bullish support and still collect some profit. I could maybe give it to $100k as sort of a blowoff of the current move. But through that and I'm wrong about the current pattern.

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Important spot here if it wants any hope of not at least seeing $85k again

I think someone tried to nuke the weekly candle right before it closed. Stayed green though. BTC price action is so highly manipulated.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think someone tried to nuke the weekly candle right before it closed. Stayed green though. BTC price action is so highly manipulated.

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Can you explain why manipulators somehow only profit when price goes down?

They don't. They profit both ways.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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They don't. They profit both ways.

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Interesting.. I never hear the cries of manipulation when price is going up on Bitcoin. Twitter/x is the worst about it.

No doubt no doubt. I only mention it this particular time because I was just watching the weekly candle. It had 30 minutes left to close sitting at 95.8k. Then it got nuked. Also relatively low volume. So I figure someone was attempting to turn the weekly candle red at the last minute.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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No doubt no doubt. I only mention it this particular time because I was just watching the weekly candle. It had 30 minutes left to close sitting at 95.8k. Then it got nuked. Also relatively low volume. So I figure someone was attempting to turn the weekly candle red at the last minute.

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Could be. Shorts usually move with significant size. But this move was predictable. Just a matter of if we got follow-through to $85k.

True true. I agree, I think I mentioned here other crypto thread I tought we would likely retest around 88-90k

Yukon Cornelius said:

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True true. I agree, I think I mentioned here other crypto thread I tought we would likely retest around 88-90k

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My bull case is holding $84.3k - $87.5k range. If that can hold, there's a chance for $102k-$106k. But hard to project any upside above that. My base case is bear has started and is in early phase. We will see.

This is a new one for the stock market

🇬🇧 BANK OF ENGLAND ADVISOR: ALIENS COULD CRASH THE ECONOMY ...WAIT...WHAT?!

A former Bank of England policy analyst is warning the UK’s central bank to prepare for a financial crisis… caused by aliens.

Helen McCaw says if the White House ever confirms intelligent non-human… pic.twitter.com/CvWEBPDXtS

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 19, 2026

I'm curious your thoughts on the BTC NUPL chart. To me it looks like the volatility has largely been reduced on it this past year. My take away is alot of old btc in massive profits have been sold and bought by new comers. I think that hypothetically raises the floor.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I'm curious your thoughts on the BTC NUPL chart. To me it looks like the volatility has largely been reduced on it this past year. My take away is alot of old btc in massive profits have been sold and bought by new comers. I think that hypothetically raises the floor.

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What's NUPL?

Net unrealized profit/ loss. Since it's all public blockchain people essentially track roughly what every btc was bought for. I could be wrong but I think blackrock et al absorbed a ton of early btc profit taking this last year.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Net unrealized profit/ loss. Since it's all public blockchain people essentially track roughly what every btc was bought for. I could be wrong but I think blackrock et al absorbed a ton of early btc profit taking this last year.

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I think I've seen Lyn Alden mention that before. I don't track it. Doesn't mean much to me. I would actually think the opposite. If the longer-term bulls have exited and sold to new retail, it doesn't take much for the floor to break and cause a cascade of stop outs with nothing underneath to stop it.

Fair point. Guess time will tell

Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

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No, with POWL's pathetic float AH means zilch. If wsb were targeting it, then they'd $GME this ***** and it'd be north of $600/shr right now.

One of you on X that's long POWL should join their group and bring it to their attention if you really want to see some fireworks. As I've posted before, I'm perma'd on Twitter/X (all five accounts) or I'd do it myself.

5 accounts?!?

ProgN said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

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No, with POWL's pathetic float AH means zilch. If wsb were targeting it, then they'd $GME this ***** and it'd be north of $600/shr right now.

One of you on X that's long POWL should join their group and bring it to their attention if you really want to see some fireworks. As I've posted before, I'm perma'd on Twitter/X (all five accounts) or I'd do it myself.

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You should start accounts..

Yeah, and they have more strict verification criteria now so I can't create another one. I've been known to be a dick from time to time. Anyone that used to visit F16 in the past can verify that. I now only post on this thread now and it's the only reason that I'm still on TA. I enjoy our clubhouse here.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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ProgN said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

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No, with POWL's pathetic float AH means zilch. If wsb were targeting it, then they'd $GME this ***** and it'd be north of $600/shr right now.

One of you on X that's long POWL should join their group and bring it to their attention if you really want to see some fireworks. As I've posted before, I'm perma'd on Twitter/X (all five accounts) or I'd do it myself.

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You should start accounts..

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I'd '6-9' her that's for sure.

ProgN said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Are the wsb guys playing with powl? After hours close sitting at 420.70

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No, with POWL's pathetic float AH means zilch. If wsb were targeting it, then they'd $GME this ***** and it'd be north of $600/shr right now.

One of you on X that's long POWL should join their group and bring it to their attention if you really want to see some fireworks. As I've posted before, I'm perma'd on Twitter/X (all five accounts) or I'd do it myself.

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Well the small float would also make it easier for a bunch of degenerates to peg the price at 420.69 for a 3 day weekend just for laughs...

Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

Ag CPA said:

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Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

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Expect at least a 1% down day tomorrow in the SPY and QQQ unless there is an announcement later that the tariff talk against the EU due to Greenland is rendered moot.

I'm keeping KWEB on my radar. Lots of talk about Chinese AI not being too far behind the US capacity right now and KWEB would benefit nicely from that sentiment.

Gaeilge said:

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Ag CPA said:

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Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

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Expect at least a 1% down day tomorrow in the SPY and QQQ unless there is an announcement later that the tariff talk against the EU due to Greenland is rendered moot.

I'm keeping KWEB on my radar. Lots of talk about Chinese AI not being too far behind the US capacity right now and KWEB would benefit nicely from that sentiment.

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Look at OI and volume of March 39C

Gaeilge said:

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Ag CPA said:

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Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

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Expect at least a 1% down day tomorrow in the SPY and QQQ unless there is an announcement later that the tariff talk against the EU due to Greenland is rendered moot.

I'm keeping KWEB on my radar. Lots of talk about Chinese AI not being too far behind the US capacity right now and KWEB would benefit nicely from that sentiment.

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Yeah I'm not so sure about being down that much. I'll think more about it in the lining because futures right now don't mean much. I've seen futures worse than this before, the night before, and then wake up in the morning and it's completely different

Ag CPA said:

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Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

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Ok, with the futures down big tonight due to political rhetoric, there should be some great opportunities for swing trades for those of you that have some cash on the sidelines and are on the aggressive side. For a swing trade the following stocks are my targets in order of priority between 8-8:30am cst when they start to reverse on the 5m intraday.

• CLS
• VRT
• VST
• PLTR

I do not have levels that I'm waiting on because I don't care about the price if they're down big at the open. I'm only focusing on their reversal. This is an aggressive TRADING play, a quick strike. Do your DD tonight so you don't hesitate tomorrow. I will not be able to post what I do prior to placing my own trades because I my attention will be on those stocks across the accounts I control. Believe in yourselves with the experienced you've learned here.

AH just opened and CLS is sub $300. It may not open there but it will snapback quickly when the dust clears. Use the algos and fear of others to profit.

ProgN said:

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Ag CPA said:

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Tomorrow is going to be interesting, futures down but things could change.

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Ok, with the futures down big tonight due to political rhetoric, there should be some great opportunities for swing trades for those of you that have some cash on the sidelines and are on the aggressive side. For a swing trade the following stocks are my targets in order of priority between 8-8:30am cst when they start to reverse on the 5m intraday.

• CLS
• VRT
• VST
• PLTR

I do not have levels that I'm waiting on because I don't care about the price if they're down big at the open. I'm only focusing on their reversal. This is an aggressive TRADING play, a quick strike. Do your DD tonight so you don't hesitate tomorrow. I will not be able to post what I do prior to placing my own trades because I my attention will be on those stocks across the accounts I control. Believe in yourselves with the experienced you've learned here.

AH just opened and CLS is sub $300. It may not open there but it will snapback quickly when the dust clears. Use the algos and fear of others to profit.

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Love volatility as you know brother. I'll watch these best as I can. Main trade I'm in is Feb VIX calls. Likely pay well at open and close them out and pivot.

PS - me following your trades these days.

So if I do a webinar on AI Data Centers and talk about precious metals and their importance to that industry, then casually drop WWR in the conversation, as a great domestic source of precious metal processing and development, and it moves the needle....would yall buy me a beer? Ill share the link here if anyone wants to watch.

Disclaimer: I wont move jack s*** regardless of what I say.

Talon2DSO said:

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So if I do a webinar on AI Data Centers and talk about precious metals and their importance to that industry, then casually drop WWR in the conversation, as a great domestic source of precious metal processing and development, and it moves the needle....would yall buy me a beer? Ill share the link here if anyone wants to watch.

Disclaimer: I wont move jack s*** regardless of what I say.

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A beer and a ride in my new Lambo.

Talon2DSO said:

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So if I do a webinar on AI Data Centers and talk about precious metals and their importance to that industry, then casually drop WWR in the conversation, as a great domestic source of precious metal processing and development, and it moves the needle....would yall buy me a beer? Ill share the link here if anyone wants to watch.

Disclaimer: I wont move jack s*** regardless of what I say.

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I'm in hahah

FJ43 said:

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Main trade I'm in is Feb VIX calls. Likely pay well at open and close them out and pivot.

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This just reminded me of the 1/30 vxx 28.5 calls I tried all last week to get rid of!!!

Glad to see you and 30k back, hope y'all stick around!

Prog, what on earth do you say on twitter that you can actually get banned for? They have straight up pornography on the platform.