Oh man, sorry to hear that. Hope it is the better of the two strains

BucketofBalls99 said:

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Oh man, sorry to hear that. Hope it is the better of the two strains

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No puking so I'll take it, just feels like I got hit by a truck. I will survive!

For the record if AVGO fills that gap, I'm betting the house.

Look outside of tech and plenty of great trades

Thats what im waiting for

Same here but will jump also into SOXL.

Jumped back into SMCI today.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Jumped back into SMCI today.

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I like SMCI.

positive job numbers +64,000 created and hourly wages up 3.5%

enough to move the NASDAQ higher?

getting crushed the last month.

Forgot to mention that October was -105K and unemployment rose to 4.6%.

Ag CPA said:

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Forgot to mention that October was -105K and unemployment rose to 4.6%.

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Yeah I think the market is going to interpret the job numbers as an overall negative. The labor market is continuing to weaken.

JUST IN 🚨: Federal Reserve just pumped $5.2 Billion into the U.S. Banking System through overnight repos 🤯 This is the 6th largest liquidity injection since Covid and surpasses even the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 👀 pic.twitter.com/zGVLhnSA5F

— Barchart (@Barchart) December 16, 2025

So for those of us who are a little dull - doesn't this lead to the house of cards (market) growing even larger?

Was messing with charts on Nasdaq. Appears we have a very positive trend line going back from April 2025 and the drop we had week of Thanksgiving. We are very close to testing it down around the 22,900 area. This will come to a head by the end of the week if not sooner. I'm using this as a re-entry. I will admit I got anxious and got an SOXL position latte yesterday earlier than I should have and am paying the price.


Learning as I go so curious what more experience traders are seeing.

Bought more SOXL here. Orders at 40, 38, 36.

Long MSTR with stop at yesterday low.

Lots of chop today. Seems to want to run though. We shall see.

In with SMCI. Small holding.

Buying more UNG in the 11s.

Proposition Joe said:

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So for those of us who are a little dull - doesn't this lead to the house of cards (market) growing even larger?

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I'm no expert but my interpretation is that this is more short term but could be indicative of larger problems. I suppose it could lead to the bubble growing larger. Unless it pops.

I don't think we are paying enough attention to what is going on in Japan. They're killing liquidity in the marketplace. And they seem hell bent to continue on this monetary tightening path.

In on SMCI

Anyone going to jump on the Medline IPO? Talking about it being the biggest IPO of the year.

Also, anyone still in PLTR? What are you seeing for this? I'm down a little on it, but wondering if it will ever entertain going north of $200 again or not? Or maybe cut the small loss and invest somewhere else?

Would be nice to finish in the green today. Let's see if we get there...

BucketofBalls99 said:

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Anyone going to jump on the Medline IPO? Talking about it being the biggest IPO of the year.

Also, anyone still in PLTR? What are you seeing for this? I'm down a little on it, but wondering if it will ever entertain going north of $200 again or not? Or maybe cut the small loss and invest somewhere else?

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It's priced at absolute perfection

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Expensive, but I'm going to add NOC to the 25 list. I think this sees a blowoff top landing between $683 and $775 next year. $460 really needs to hold though. If not, could leak down to $445 range before finding support. This blueprint playing out would be a completed ending diagonal into a long-term top. The top trendline you see is the top of the all-time chart channel. It intersecting the diagonal channel means I'm going to GTFO if this pans out and starts approaching it. No guarantees this move won't happen even quicker. So this is on the list, but it's a sell above $680, whether you want to cash out, raise stops, or just actively manage.



Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY
3. SLV / AGQ
4. DINO
5. NOC

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Well, it's a little different than I modeled it, but it's still up nicely and I expect updated target range of $669-$693 to hit sometime next year.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Silver is going to be next on the list. Specifically, SLV which trades at a slight discount to spot. And if you want to lever up, you can do AGQ in an attempt to double the potential gains. You might even do both. Ya'll know I've been tracking it for a long time. My portfolio is HEAVY with silver and silver miners. I think we're close to a bottom and about to enter the phase where silver outperforms just about everything. The last move up a couple months ago broke above significant long-term resistance and I bulled up. They promptly slammed it back down and its been correcting for 2 months, wiping out TONS of bullish option calls. But I should have seen it coming, and I'm an idiot for ignoring the signs. Learn from your mistakes. The move from August to October was, you guessed it, an ending diagonal. The reversal window runs through Jan 8 with a lower target of $24.25, and the upper end of the target box around $25.50. This was a missed chance to make a killing in put options. On top of that, the recent "b" wave in early December completed with a short-term ending diagonal. I did put on protective puts for that one and made 2x on them with that reversal downward. But we're only looking forward now.

So I'm hunting a bottom between $24.25 and $25.50 between now and Jan 8. If you have no exposure yet, I recommend buying shares as you can exit them easier when needed. The stop will be under $23 and I might give it to $22.50. I personally don't think it gets below $24, but you never know. The lower end of the target box is $37 with the upper end being $41-$42 range. But, and this is a big but, metals tend to extend in their 5th waves. This is different than what you're used to with equities, which tend to extend in their 3rd wave (think NVDA last year, SMCI up into the ATH, POWL, etc). That's because a metals 5th wave usually coincides with the general market finally realizing the reality of the economic situation and piling into what they are told is protection. Shorts get blown out and a gamma squeeze takes firm hold. These extensions can go FAR past what you think is likely. So, while we have an upper end to our target box, I will likely only sell a portion there and will be watching critical support zones. The thing about metals extensions is, they don't last long, even if they are ferocious. Once metals top, they freaking top and reverse quite quickly. So while you might want to leave some exposure, you will need to be mindful to take profits along the way. Because this 5th wave that topping is most likely within a (C) wave of the larger degree off the 2020 low. And if that's the case, then it's an even larger "B" wave top in the second leg of a 3-wave move off the 2011 moon rocket, and the ensuing larger [C] wave would lead to under $10. Is there a chance this incoming top is part of a larger bullish structure? Sure. But I don't see anything pointing to a reliable path for that, and even if so, we will get a significant downward move after this top. So when I say take profits, I hope you will listen. Lastly, these kinds of moves in silver tend to line up with equities starting to reverse course and potentially even falling hard. Something to keep in mind.



Now, for those bolder, here's the AGQ chart. This is a 2x levered ETF tracking silver. When it's bullish, it makes serious money. But when it's bearish, it loses money twice as fast. Only use this one if you are willing to endure some potentially sizeable swings up and down. I will likely have a small portion of AGQ, and will go heavier in it when I feel like supports have been hit and big moves are coming.

AGQ should bottom somewhere between $28 and $31.50. And it's taking more of a diagonal shape pointing to upper target between $65 and $75. But I don't worry as much about specific targets in levered instruments as far as Elliott Wave goes, because they can tend to extend beyond reasonable measure due to the leverage. This could go as high as $90 for all I know. But even the lower end will be a 2x from our entry.



To recap:

SLV
Buy between $24.50 and $25 (and potentially now if you don't want to take a chance of missing it)
Stop under $23
Target $37-$41 and possibly moon

AGQ
Buy between $28 and $31.50
Stop = SLV under $23
Target $65 - $75 and possibly moon

Regarding options, I used the last "b" wave to exit anything of value for Dec and Jan. On Friday, I averaged down my Feb and March positions and initiated $28's on each. If we get into my target zone, I will average down everything I currently hold and likely buy Jan at the money, Feb at the money, and possibly even March at the money calls. But it likely won't immediately rocket upward. There will almost undoubtedly be a buildup phase likely through January expiration. So I might wait on bullish set ups to confirm to get aggressive.

Lastly, I keep track of the futures and spot charts as well, and you might see me post those in updates as they have far more data to serve as clues being open overnight. Make sure you check which chart I'm showing so you don't mess up support and resistance zones.

Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY
3. SLV / AGQ

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If you didn't win on this one you are a moron.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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For bullish, DINO would have to be a diagonal which can be overlapping on the long-term, but here's the path I charted, and I can't find a bearish path I consider more probable. The most convincing thing I see is the recent 5-wave down move to complete the longer correction dating back to late 2022. So at the very least, this should be reversing. Hit the 50% retrace on a perfect tick. Love it.

Entry - Now
Stop - $28.49
Min target - $50, that would be a 61.8% retrace back up
Max target - $80 range, and I would treat it as a net free area to go higher in 2026.



Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY
3. SLV / AGQ
4. DINO

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Was stopped out of this one and never looked at it again. Maybe I will soon.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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OXY is going to be next on the 25 in 25 list.

This one has been a tough cookie going all the way back to late 2022. But it's now done enough to consider this long-term correction over. I'm honestly not positive on what's long-term, as I can see multiple possibilities. But what I do spot is the selloff since April has completed 5 waves down in an ending diagonal. Read the NKE post above for the in depth on ED's and what they signify. This one makes the list because the probability of reversal is high assuming support holds. Right now, that support is $45 area. But I'm going to place my stop lower in case it wants to squiggle down one more time.

The target for reversal is by late August 2025. And we have a high probability target area of $65-$71. That would give us 45-50% gain on shares bought at current prices. I bought my position in the $45's last week. And I will definitely add if we get back into the $50's and then come down and hold a higher low. Might even add calls then.

I do want to caveat, that I don't think all energy is due for robust gains. There are some names that I could definitely see moving significantly lower. So be targeted in your approach to energy. This one is one of my favorites BECAUSE of the high probability nature of ED reversals.



Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY

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Stopped out of this one and same as DINO, haven't looked at it since.

I obviously never found even close to 25 holdings for last year's list. Picking things at an abritrary end of year timeframe to hold for 1 year isn't really my thing. But I will be going through charts as the year winds down to see if I can come up with 6 in 26.

I'll start the 6 in 26 list with AUST. The thesis is a pure financial work of art ladies and gentlemen.



But let me explain.

First, this is the chart I started tracking in the summer with a clear repeating wedge breakout pattern. I was treating where it was at the yellow line as fractal behavior similar to what it did in 2024. We played this on a discord group and another website I post on that is heavily into metals and miners. I had a significant position and went net free above $2.50. It failed to extend to the $4 target I wanted to sell the rest. Have been holding patiently since.



But if you go back to the first chart, you will notice it's using a trendline that has been support and resistance multiple times in the past, with the top parallel trendline used now as double resistance in 2024 and 2025. The thesis is, as long as lower yellow channel trendline holds, we can view the last spike as the A wave, the recent low as a B, and the next hopeful spike as our C with minimum target $5.11 and max target $7.50 range. I'm using $1.33 as a stop, as that would be below the trendline and would break the 76.4% retracement (which doesn't invalidate it, but makes it very unlikely). Green channel is merely the 2023-2024 fractal pattern trajectory plotted on current action as a guideline for timing and trajectory.

Buying UBER today. I think it has great value under $80.

Nasdaq must have Tres Comas on the delete key again...

Just ridiculous….

Dafuq did someone say at 9:30?!

BROS up almost 5%. Looking very good on the weekly