He's a fantastic case study for me, because his numbers are fairly pedestrian (for a HoF caliber player) but his hardware is absolutely ridiculous.

His career bbWAR is respectable but still 2/3 of what the typical HoF catcher is, his fWar is even more unimpressive BUT:

9 time all star
5 time gold glove
5 time silver slugger
2015 World Series MVP
One of only 8 catchers to hit 300+ HR

He's also universally loved and won a Roberto Clemente award, which might nudge him into plausibility.

Just based on what happened with Brian McCann in last year's voting, I would say no.

I know Perez is a better defensive player than McCann. Maybe, once the steroid-era guys are off the ballot we see a shift in voting patterns. But I doubt Perez has much of a chance. Not opposed to it, myself, necessarily. But I don't see it happening.

BCSWguru said:

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If not Salvy, then who? He and Yadi are the best of the best behind the plate in this era.

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There are only like 9 catchers who played after World War II in the Hall of Fame. So, it could be "no one."

I think he and Yadier are both in. Posey is the harder one.

Actually, I went and looked all 3 up.... Posey was shorter career but was such a stud. I think all 3 make it.

TXAggie2011 said:

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BCSWguru said:

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If not Salvy, then who? He and Yadi are the best of the best behind the plate in this era.

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There are only like 9 catchers who played after World War II in the Hall of Fame. So, it could be "no one."

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how many have those credentials and are not in?

ranks of catchers only....
9 time all star - 7th all time
5 time gold glove - 6th all time
5 time silver slugger - 5th all time
2015 World Series MVP - only 7

Last 30 Years:

fWAR
1. Posey - 57.9
2. Pudge - 56.9
3. Yadi - 55.6
4. Russell Martin - 54.5
5. Joe Mauer - 53.5
6. Brian McCann - 52.1
7. Mike Piazza - 45.3
8. Jorge Posada - 40.9
9. Yasmani Grandal - 40.0
10. JT Realmuto - 36.7
29. Salvador Perez - 19.0

wRC+ (min 5k PA)
1. Mike Piazza - 138
2. Buster Posey - 129
3. Jorge Posada - 123
4. Joe Mauer - 123
5. Mike Napoli - 119
6. Victor Martinez - 117
7. Javy Lopez - 113
8. Brian McCann - 110
9. JT Reamuto - 109
10. Pudge - 107
12. Salvador Perez - 103

Note: some guys careers get cut off


He's a no from me. The offense just isn't good enough to offset being a bad catcher. Home runs are cool, but but you don't get on base and still get outslugged by guys like Posey & Napoli.

If I turn the catcher filter off and bump the min to 6K PA, guys with similar offensive profiles are Vernon Wells, Mark Reynolds, Garrett Anderson, and Adam Jones. Not exactly a HOF bat even for the catcher position.

Farmer1906 said:

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Last 30 Years:

fWAR
1. Posey - 57.9
2. Pudge - 56.9
3. Yadi - 55.6
4. Russell Martin - 54.5
5. Joe Mauer - 53.5
6. Brian McCann - 52.1
7. Mike Piazza - 45.3
8. Jorge Posada - 40.9
9. Yasmani Grandal - 40.0
10. JT Realmuto - 36.7
29. Salvador Perez - 19.0

wRC+ (min 5k PA)
1. Mike Piazza - 138
2. Buster Posey - 129
3. Jorge Posada - 123
4. Joe Mauer - 123
5. Mike Napoli - 119
6. Victor Martinez - 117
7. Javy Lopez - 113
8. Brian McCann - 110
9. JT Reamuto - 109
10. Pudge - 107
12. Salvador Perez - 103

Note: some guys careers get cut off


He's a no from me. The offense just isn't good enough to offset being a bad catcher. Home runs are cool, but but you don't get on base and still get outslugged by guys like Posey & Napoli.

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The fWar is a little ridiculous because it penalizes him for terrible framing. Framing wasn't that big of a statistic for the vast majority of his career.

It's also a little ridiculous to call a guy a "bad catcher" who has 5 gold gloves.

I think the all-star selections can't be taken all that significantly. It is mostly a popularity contest at this point with the fan vote.

It is an interested case though. My initial thought is that it is close and maybe it takes him a while to get in.

Gold Gloves are mostly meaningless. I think it's gotten a little better, but for a long time, it's mostly been a popularity contest. Jeter won 5 GG after age 30. From 2004 to 2010, the window Jeter got his 5, he ranked 24 out of 24 in DRS for qualified SS. Jack Wilson was the clear #1 by a long shot. He won zero GG.

You are right. A bad catcher is too far. He's been a bad catcher for the 2nd half of his career. He was good during the window of his gold gloves. He was absolutely worse than guys like Buster, Martin, Maldonado, Grandal, Yadi, Gomes, etc.

If he plays 5 more years (he's 35) an isn't hurt, he'll have a great shot at 2,000 hits an d400 home runs. Not sure you can keep a catcher out with those numbres.

He needs 286 hits for 2000 and 96 home runs (whoop) for 400. He should finish top 1-5 in career home runs among catchers. if you're putting Carlton Fisk who played until he was 300 years old but stopped being good in 1985 in the HOF, Perez should make it.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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if you're putting Carlton Fisk who played until he was 300 years old but stopped being good in 1985 in the HOF, Perez should make it.

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Fisk was bad in 1986 and pretty bad in the last two years of his career, but his bWAA from 1987 to 1991 was 8.4, which is about two thirds of Salvy's mark for his entire career.

The only question on Buster is whether he goes in first ballot; I think yes. Yadi looks a lot better with fWAR than bWAR, but I think his rep as arguably the 2nd greatest defensive catcher of all time gets him in as well. Salvy's case just isn't going to move the needle for sabermetric types among the writers, and I don't see him getting elected by the BBWAA. Veterans Committee, who knows? A process that elects Harold Baines could elect just about anyone with a 15 year career.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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if you're putting Carlton Fisk who played until he was 300 years old but stopped being good in 1985 in the HOF, Perez should make it.

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Fisk was bad in 1986 and pretty bad in the last two years of his career, but his bWAA from 1987 to 1991 was 8.4, which is about two thirds of Salvy's mark for his entire career.

The only question on Buster is whether he goes in first ballot; I think yes. Yadi looks a lot better with fWAR than bWAR, but I think his rep as arguably the 2nd greatest defensive catcher of all time gets him in as well. Salvy's case just isn't going to move the needle for sabermetric types among the writers, and I don't see him getting elected by the BBWAA. Veterans Committee, who knows? A process that elects Harold Baines could elect just about anyone with a 15 year career.

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I think the sad thing is that if Perez had jumped to the Dodgers, Yankees, or Sox after 2015 or 2021, he'd be a shoo-in, but because he's been a loyal Royal, it will be an uphill climb. Brett has to be their only HOFer who went their whole career in KC, right?

I think so

He is one of the best of his generation at his position

CharleyKerfeld said:

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I think the sad thing is that if Perez had jumped to the Dodgers, Yankees, or Sox after 2015 or 2021, he'd be a shoo-in, but because he's been a loyal Royal, it will be an uphill climb. Brett has to be their only HOFer who went their whole career in KC, right?

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I don't see a lot of evidence of team based bias post 1980. I mean, Johnny Damon isn't in. Nomah isn't in. Curt Schilling and Manny B Manny aren't in (although not for the same reasons, LOL). Bernie Williams isn't in, Jorge Posada isn't in, Andy Pettitte isn't in, etc.

BCSWguru said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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BCSWguru said:

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If not Salvy, then who? He and Yadi are the best of the best behind the plate in this era.

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There are only like 9 catchers who played after World War II in the Hall of Fame. So, it could be "no one."

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how many have those credentials and are not in?

ranks of catchers only....
9 time all star - 7th all time
5 time gold glove - 6th all time
5 time silver slugger - 5th all time
2015 World Series MVP - only 7

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That's as much a function of a very lackluster catching pool during his career.

He's very likeable and that matters a lot. His metrics say Hall of Very Good but the media pull may get him over the line.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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I think the sad thing is that if Perez had jumped to the Dodgers, Yankees, or Sox after 2015 or 2021, he'd be a shoo-in, but because he's been a loyal Royal, it will be an uphill climb. Brett has to be their only HOFer who went their whole career in KC, right?

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I don't see a lot of evidence of team based bias post 1980. I mean, Johnny Damon isn't in. Nomah isn't in. Curt Schilling and Manny B Manny aren't in (although not for the same reasons, LOL). Bernie Williams isn't in, Jorge Posada isn't in, Andy Pettitte isn't in, etc.

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Every single time I see a "Who should be in the HOF" it's like 90% Bernie, Posada, and Pettitte....and then 10% Pete Rose

AgRyan04 said:

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Every single time I see a "Who should be in the HOF" it's like 90% Bernie, Posada, and Pettitte....and then 10% Pete Rose

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David Cone has a better case than any of those 3 Yankees.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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AgRyan04 said:

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Every single time I see a "Who should be in the HOF" it's like 90% Bernie, Posada, and Pettitte....and then 10% Pete Rose

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David Cone has a better case than any of those 3 Yankees.

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What is odd is that I never see Rocket or A-Rod being clamored over

AgRyan04 said:

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What is odd is that I never see Rocket or A-Rod being clamored over

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Roger? He was pretty good in 97, but it was downhill from there.

Bernie kind of reminds me of Springer. Very good OFer but never MVP kind of good. Tons of postseason success. Not HOF worthy but HOVG.