This seems to imply that either Ole Miss is the easiest bet of all time OR that we will be #6 on Saturday...

Ohio State

Sloppy

Whatever Vegas knows, it's not that we're going to be #6, because that is highly unlikely.

Texags Meltdown said:

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5Amp said:

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Ohio State

Sloppy

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Yeah Ohio State and Indiana are already guaranteed top 4 and thus not included clearly

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Okay, I see now.

that literally makes no sense.

That is extremely odd. Those odds assume we're getting a bye

There is no way that is correct after Tuesday's ranking, has to be an old screenshot

I checked the app. It's still up. We're also the 4th favorite to make the semis at -110

It's actual legit right now on fanDuel - just found it myself

That's wild.

Well there is absolutely zero value on that bet right now

Of those odds are real, bet the farm on Ole Miss.

Are we sure this is up to date and not from a week ago?

Rule of thumb. If you can't bet the "no" it's a sucker bet at a crap price

So… Moss is coming back eh

NormanEH said:

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Rule of thumb. If you can't bet the "no" it's a sucker bet at a crap price

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I don't think anyone is suggesting to bet it

It's assuming we play 11 or 12 seed. And with the way acc has shaped up, it'll be JMU or UNT. HTH

Then who are they assuming Oregon plays?

Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

All this likely means is Georgia and Aggie fans have been out tagging playoff futures on their teams really heavily for a few weeks

HoustonAg2106 said:

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There is no way that is correct after Tuesday's ranking, has to be an old screenshot

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False

Jeeper79 said:

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Are we sure this is up to date and not from a week ago?

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Yes

ATM9000 said:

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Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

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This is completely incorrect. Vegas books purposefully take proprietary positions. The traditional balanced book margins are not enough to justify the floor space at the casinos.

Sodadude said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

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This is completely incorrect. Vegas books purposefully take proprietary positions. The traditional balanced book margins are not enough to justify the floor space at the casinos.

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On occasion? Maybe… but broadly this can't be true. And I certainly wouldn't expect it on futures betting. Particularly on playoff outcomes which should have fairly large action on them.

Odds are broadly dictated by platforms that don't take floor space. As such, they don't need to take prop positions to earn margin. They just balance risk. If 'Vegas' worked differently, there would likely be large arbs between casinos and online oddsmakers despite the vig.

These are odds that we will make the quarterfinals. I think some of you think they are odds to win the Championship Game, seem pretty spot on to me.

Vegas likes us winning games at home. Pretty simple.

-4000 never would've made sense

it's essentially 90% odds we get a bye, and if not then 80% winning 1st rd (6seed)

even before last game realistically should've been only around -800 which takes into account probabilities of winning the game or a 1st rd game

wasntme said:

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These are odds that we will make the quarterfinals. I think some of you think they are odds to win the Championship Game, seem pretty spot on to me.

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-4000 to win our first game is like saying we are going to be 28 point favorites…probably more

That ole miss number is bizarre.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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wasntme said:

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These are odds that we will make the quarterfinals. I think some of you think they are odds to win the Championship Game, seem pretty spot on to me.

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-4000 to win our first game is like saying we are going to be 28 point favorites…probably more

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You pulled this out of your A$$. Right?

LB12Diamond said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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wasntme said:

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These are odds that we will make the quarterfinals. I think some of you think they are odds to win the Championship Game, seem pretty spot on to me.

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-4000 to win our first game is like saying we are going to be 28 point favorites…probably more

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You pulled this out of your A$$. Right?

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Educated guess.

JMU is a 24 point favorite this weekend and they are -3200 on the money line

ATM9000 said:

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Sodadude said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

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This is completely incorrect. Vegas books purposefully take proprietary positions. The traditional balanced book margins are not enough to justify the floor space at the casinos.

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On occasion? Maybe… but broadly this can't be true. And I certainly wouldn't expect it on futures betting. Particularly on playoff outcomes which should have fairly large action on them.

Odds are broadly dictated by platforms that don't take floor space. As such, they don't need to take prop positions to earn margin. They just balance risk. If 'Vegas' worked differently, there would likely be large arbs between casinos and online oddsmakers despite the vig.

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Yep just like wall street. It's all priced based on the publics buying which is why no banks have trading desks looking for inefficiency. It just wouldn't be profitable enough since they don't have any information the public doesn't have and learn about things the same time we all do. Vegas acts the same way and doesn't even try to get and edge because they know if they did it would break the trust they built with their customers /s

Threw some money at ole miss. These odds should have been updated after Tuesday. Of course now we will swap with Ole Miss and I'll have this sweet hedge to thank.

permabull said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Sodadude said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

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This is completely incorrect. Vegas books purposefully take proprietary positions. The traditional balanced book margins are not enough to justify the floor space at the casinos.

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On occasion? Maybe… but broadly this can't be true. And I certainly wouldn't expect it on futures betting. Particularly on playoff outcomes which should have fairly large action on them.

Odds are broadly dictated by platforms that don't take floor space. As such, they don't need to take prop positions to earn margin. They just balance risk. If 'Vegas' worked differently, there would likely be large arbs between casinos and online oddsmakers despite the vig.

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Yep just like wall street. It's all priced based on the publics buying which is why no banks have trading desks looking for inefficiency. It just wouldn't be profitable enough since they don't have any information the public doesn't have and learn about things the same time we all do. Vegas acts the same way and doesn't even try to get and edge because they know if they did it would break the trust they built with their customers /s

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Then just take A&M off the board if they are over leveraged on bets saying we will make it to the quarter finals (winning the first game). -4000 is essentially the same thing, anyone that takes that bet is an absolute sucker. If you want to bet that A&M wins their first game just bet A&M on the money line when the match up comes out, even if we are favored it wouldn't be more than -200 or -300.

Not into gambling at all. What the heck does -4000 even mean as compared to -140 or +2000