NOAA has released their prediction as "below normal".

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season

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NOAA Atlantic hurricane preseason predictions began in 1999. I have compiled a chart and this is how they have fared since then. Blue dots are prior to 1999, black dots are "extremely active" predictions, red dots are "above normal" predictions, yellow dots are "near normal" predictions, and green dots are "below normal" predictions. Looks like both predictions for "below normal" have been correct.



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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html

The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 125.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2
The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

• Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).
• Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020, 130% of 96.7).
• Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median, 75% of 96.7).
• Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.

"It only takes one storm, so keep watching your local forecast to keep you weather aware."

Yeah, you're gonna have to explain that chart to me like I'm 5.
How often are the hurricane predictions accurate?

NoahAg said:

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Yeah, you're gonna have to explain that chart to me like I'm 5.
How often are the hurricane predictions accurate?

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A dot in the green shaded area was a below normal year.
A dot in the blue shaded area was a near normal year.
A dot in the purple shaded area was an above normal year.
A dot in the red shaded area was an extremely active year.

A green dot was a below normal prediction.
A yellow dot was a near normal prediction.
A red dot was an above normal prediction.
A black dot was an extremely active prediction.

Accurate prediction years: 8 times

• green dot in the green shaded area (2 times: 2014, 2015)
• yellow dot in blue shaded area (1 time: 2001)
• red dot in purple shaded area (4 times: 2008, 2011, 2021, 2025)
• black dot in red shaded area (1 time: 2010)

Underpredicted years (more ACE than predicted): 12 times

• yellow dot in purple shaded area (5 times: 2012, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2023)
• red dot in red shaded area (7 times: 1999, 2003-2005, 2017, 2020, 2024)

Overpredicted years (less ACE than predicted): 7 times

• red dot in blue or green shaded area (5 times: 2000, 2006, 2007, 2013, 2022)
• yellow dot in green shaded area (2 times: 2002, 2009)

Its an El Nino year which "should" be more disruptive to Gulf of Mexico storms than a La Nina year like we've been in for a while. Its going to do whatever it wants though as last year was a La Nina year and we had zero gulf storms.

Better get that lake fun time in before hurricane season gets here, I mean hurrrrrr

https://instagr.am/p/DY0ZHpfvx4H

wessimo said:

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Sounds about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts

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Most people hear a NOAA "above normal" prediction and say "yah, they always say that." But out of the 27 predictions, only 7 have been overpredictions. People just don't pay attention because a hurricane didn't personally affect them.

In

Yeah, but your post holes have definitely gotten wetter than in years past. You CANT deny that.

schmellba99 said:

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Martin Q. Blank said:

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wessimo said:

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Sounds about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts

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Most people hear a NOAA "above normal" prediction and say "yah, they always say that." But out of the 27 predictions, only 7 have been overpredictions. People just don't pay attention because a hurricane didn't personally affect them.

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No, it's because for the last 20 something years we've heard that hurricanes are going to be more frequent and more powerful every single year because of the stupid global warming climate change so you need to pay more taxes to make politicians rich scam.

After a while people just quit listening when we aren't slammed with CAT5's every other week and the world hasn't come to an end and people realize that things are pretty much exactly the same as they have been since man could write stuff down.

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That's not due to NOAA predictions though. Last year, they predicted an "above normal" year. Not one hurricane hit the U.S. People would call that an extremely "below normal" year. But in the end, the ACE index was "above normal".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Due in large part to these systems, and despite a below-average number of named storms and hurricanes, the season had an above-normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 130.8 units.

But hurricanes are more frequent and they seem to ramp up in power more quickly than in the past. But none of them have blown your house over therefore its all a scam, right?

Darthag11 said:

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cajunaggie08 said:

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But hurricanes are more frequent and they seem to ramp up in power more quickly than in the past. But none of them have blown your house over therefore its all a scam, right?

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more frequent and ramp up in power? You just making stuff up?

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No this was/is a common line in climate change pop science. The reasoning is a warmer ocean means more energy available for hurricane formation. I heard it multiple times. Scishow on youtube will still whip out a similarly phrased throwaway line about climate change every now and then.

So yeah, there is a layer of 'science as a religion' people out there who do say things like that. While the phd's they cheer along would probably hedge a bit more in their statements.

It would go a long way they recolorized the dots to be the same color as the band they identified. That way if a green dot is in a green band you can tell they were right. If a red dot is in a green band you knew they were wrong.

As of right now I've got black dots and yellow dots that don't correspond to anything.

Chart crime (misdemeanor level)

yah, I tried that, but the dots (especially yellow) don't show up very well against their own color background.

orange is a little better.

Martin Q. Blank said:

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orange is a little better.

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Thanks for the improved color coordination. Shooting from the hip it looks like:

-When they forecast "below normal", its actually below normal
-When they forecast "extremely active" its actually extremely active

-When they forecast "above normal" its a crapshoot and anything is on the table.
-When they forecast "normal", it only rules out "extremely active", everything else is on the table

So realistically, their model is only good at predicting the extremes of the model. Any recommendation that is near normal or above normal is basically, 'we don't have an precise prediction'

Somewhere there is a model that charts:

ACE index (predicted) on the X axis and ACE index (actual) on the Y axis and you'd be able to plot the deviations from the center line as a measure of increasing or decreasing accuracy and that would tell you with better information than the fever chart.

That could tell you if basically the ACE index cutoff at which it was crap.

You know what, this is a great thing to ask an AI to do. Give me a minute.

one MEEN Ag said:

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ACE index (predicted) on the X axis

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They don't predict ACE. Just the likelihood of a particular season.

Martin Q. Blank said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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ACE index (predicted) on the X axis

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They don't predict ACE. Just the likelihood of a particular season.

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Thanks for clearing that up.

But somewhere under the hood at NOAA is a model that predicts ACE or an ACE equivalent.

Martin Q. Blank said:

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wessimo said:

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Sounds about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts

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Most people hear a NOAA "above normal" prediction and say "yah, they always say that." But out of the 27 predictions, only 7 have been overpredictions. People just don't pay attention because a hurricane didn't personally affect them.

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poeple don't pay attention, because what difference does it make?

nobody makes a decision or changes their behavior based upon hurricanes predictions 3-5 months out.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Martin Q. Blank said:

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wessimo said:

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Sounds about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts

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Most people hear a NOAA "above normal" prediction and say "yah, they always say that." But out of the 27 predictions, only 7 have been overpredictions. People just don't pay attention because a hurricane didn't personally affect them.

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poeple don't pay attention, because what difference does it make?

nobody makes a decision or changes their behavior based upon hurricanes predictions 3-5 months out.

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I meant people pay attention to the prediction enough to question it as an overprediction, but not if they were ultimately correct.