ReelAg6 said:

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Rattler12 said:

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UntoldSpirit said:

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If the river really crests 37 feet at Spring Branch, it will be way way over the highway at the Guadalupe river bridge on 281. The 281 bridge would seem to be in jeopardy.

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It won't be over the highway at 281 if it crests at 37 feet. The flood of 1978 crested at 45+ feet and barely went over. The flood of 2002 crested at 44.2 ft and just lapped at the bottom. If you're getting your info from KSAT12 those people have no clue about the Spring Branch area. The weather man Adam Caskey was talking about flooding in our area and said the river will be 10 feet over the bridge and identified an area across 281 from us and just south of the river, The River Crossing sub, and saying if you're in this area you need to think about evacuating because this land slopes toward the river and will easily fill in. The only problem is the land that slopes toward the river is a huge field on the NORTH side of the river, The south bank is a cliff that drops about 50 feet straight down. One of their reporters was on Spring Branch Road and was pointing out a low water crossing and said the water will be over this area sometime tonight. The only problem? The low water crossing was on Spring Branch road but was 3 miles south of the river and about a mile north of HWY46. Then they kept going on SB road and stopped at low water crossing near 281 and showed Spring Branch Creek flowing under the bridge and said before long this will be a roaring stream and unpassable. The problem? Spring Branch creek is a spring fed creek that runs INTO the Guadalupe about a mile south of the low water bridge.

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I missed this broadcast, but that's hilarious. We live just off SBR in Rivermont.

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Quote:

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Another rain bomb is going off now between SA and Gonzales. This is downstream of Canyon Lake and those on the Guadulupe downstream will experience river flooding. From New Braunfels to Gonzales to Cuero. The clouds making the bomb again are up over 55,000 feet high. Rainfall rates can exceed 4" per hour. Things can change in a hurry.
The physics behind these rain bombs is fascinating to this old chunk of coal. They are obviously difficult to predict and exceptionally dangerous. Computers rain forecasts are pretty useless in these situations which is why the TV mets that rely on them appear hamstrung. Here's what I know to look for.
First, a deep tropical atmosphere that is near saturation from the ground up to over 40,000 feet. That occurs rarely, but often with a tropical system that has come in off the Gulf, Like Barry. Second is a focusing mechanism like a trof of low pressure at the 10,000' to 20,000' level. That's what we had in the July Flood of 2002 and its the same now. That trof converges juicy air currents and forces them to lift. Once the lifting process begins the wet air releases latent heat of condensation and that heat makes the cloud lift rapidly upward like a hot air balloon. It's the same process that fuels hurricanes except they're over land. Computer models are pretty lousy calculating that heat release and none of them can pinpoint the bullseye of these rain bombs. Neither can I. All I can see is the potential.
What's next? The saturated atmosphere is still with us. The trof of low pressure now east of SA will be shifting slowly westward over SA back into the Hill country next 36 hours. By Monday it will be far west and out of here. Until then the radar will tell the story and it will change from hour to hour. I expect more pockets of torrential rain so pay attention and stay safe out there.

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