The headlines and the OP told us fear and panic should be our reaction. Of course, this was a easy to see distraction from the basics of the action which are because the Fed won't turn over requested information on their $2,500,000,000 office renovation.

Result - shockingly, the market takes in the new information, and it is not what they told you was going to happen and that you needed to focus on. Another misplaced fear energetically pushed upon the American people that you are now supposed to forget didn't happen by tomorrow.

All major US indices up today - the Dow 30, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000.

The 🇺🇸 stock market just closed the day GREEN

🟢🟢🟢🟢 pic.twitter.com/dG36N33Npx

— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 12, 2026

I do not think the "reportedly Scott Bessent said" crap holds water. Over the past year, each of those articles have proven woefully false.

But heck, even Kudlow is head scratching on this. He is adamant Powell is not a criminal, just totally incompetent and absolutely political.

I would advise those judging this as "Bad Trump" to take a deep breath, touch grass and think about how these things have gone in Trump 2.0.

When Jay Powell bent over and pivoted for Trump in 2018-2019 is when I really loaded up on physical #Gold and #Silver.

My #Gold cost for that period: around $1200 to $1380 USD/Troy Ounce

My #Sillver cost for that period: around $13.5 to $18 USD/Troy Ounce

I had to listen to… pic.twitter.com/DCcf1n6K93

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) January 12, 2026

It's a neat trick to warn about "weaponizing the Justice Department" while floating investigations into Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, who you appointed.

Gap said:

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Old McDonald said:

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powell rightfully cares more about preventing a recession than obeying trump, and that drives trump insane

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Like two weeks ago, 4.3% GDP growth was announced for the most recent period. What are you even talking about? The recession fear talking point didn't happen. That was over like 6-8 months ago. You are still hanging onto that and didn't get the memo to move to the next fear?

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right, in part because powell and the fed ignored trump begging them to lower interest rates.

trump gets a new appointment this summer anyway, powell is right to ignore trump on interest rates even if he whines and threatens him with criminal investigations for it.

Old McDonald said:

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Gap said:

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Old McDonald said:

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powell rightfully cares more about preventing a recession than obeying trump, and that drives trump insane

---

Like two weeks ago, 4.3% GDP growth was announced for the most recent period. What are you even talking about? The recession fear talking point didn't happen. That was over like 6-8 months ago. You are still hanging onto that and didn't get the memo to move to the next fear?

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right, in part because powell and the fed ignored trump begging them to lower interest rates.

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FYI - Powell has lowered the fed funds rates 3 separate times since Trump took office in January 2025.

Additionally, lower rates causing a recession isn't really a thing. Higher rates would be what is associated with causing a recession. The 4.3% GDP growth is in the face of the higher rates. Growth would be even stronger with lower rates.

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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When Jay Powell bent over and pivoted for Trump in 2018-2019 is when I really loaded up on physical #Gold and #Silver.

My #Gold cost for that period: around $1200 to $1380 USD/Troy Ounce

My #Sillver cost for that period: around $13.5 to $18 USD/Troy Ounce

I had to listen to… pic.twitter.com/DCcf1n6K93

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) January 12, 2026

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The price of Gold and Silver, and to an extent BTC, is an indictment of Trump and his economic legacy

Old McDonald said:

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powell rightfully cares more about preventing a recession than obeying trump, and that drives trump insane

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We already are in a recession. Neck deep for least 3 years.
Where have you been?

tysker said:

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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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When Jay Powell bent over and pivoted for Trump in 2018-2019 is when I really loaded up on physical #Gold and #Silver.

My #Gold cost for that period: around $1200 to $1380 USD/Troy Ounce

My #Sillver cost for that period: around $13.5 to $18 USD/Troy Ounce

I had to listen to… pic.twitter.com/DCcf1n6K93

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) January 12, 2026

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The price of Gold and Silver, and to an extent BTC, is an indictment of Trump and his economic legacy

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Not true. It is an indictment of the last 70 years or so of deficit spending, primarily by Democrats in Congress but ably assisted by Republicans.

It still bothers me that the Trump family is so heavily levered into crypto ventures, and the potus is working to destroy the dollar. No one cares though. Flood the zone with controversy and misdirection and all kinds of shady behavior escapes scrutiny.

Hullabaloonatic said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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They are completely unaccountable for anything...we still get rampant inflation and out of control money printing.

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Ya that's what I thought. Your opinions are absent logic and are built solely on the cult of personality that is Donald Trump.

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Have you read, "The creature from Jekyl Island?"

Would love to see Powell and yellen perp walked. Bernake too

infinity ag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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powell rightfully cares more about preventing a recession than obeying trump, and that drives trump insane

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We already are in a recession. Neck deep for least 3 years.
Where have you been?

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A recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That hasn't happened since Biden s recession in 2022.

BigScoot23 said:

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It's a neat trick to warn about "weaponizing the Justice Department" while floating investigations into Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, who you appointed.

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Wouldnt that mean he's more impartial if people he appointed are being investigated as opposed to people Biden appointed?

Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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powell rightfully cares more about preventing a recession than obeying trump, and that drives trump insane

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We already are in a recession. Neck deep for least 3 years.
Where have you been?

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A recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That hasn't happened since Biden s recession in 2022.

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Even then a recession is only when a committee "declares" it.
Ridiculous.

The job market is in recession for a long time. I think because companies are working only with Wall Street in mind, so stocks are up.

KingofHazor said:

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tysker said:

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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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When Jay Powell bent over and pivoted for Trump in 2018-2019 is when I really loaded up on physical #Gold and #Silver.

My #Gold cost for that period: around $1200 to $1380 USD/Troy Ounce

My #Sillver cost for that period: around $13.5 to $18 USD/Troy Ounce

I had to listen to… pic.twitter.com/DCcf1n6K93

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) January 12, 2026

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The price of Gold and Silver, and to an extent BTC, is an indictment of Trump and his economic legacy

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Not true. It is an indictment of the last 70 years or so of deficit spending, primarily by Democrats in Congress but ably assisted by Republicans.

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I dont disagree. But it wasn't until the last 10 years that it became obvious, at least to the public, that Congress has given all economic deference to the POTUS.

Trump's legacy, from an economic perspective, is increased spending, COVID stimulus checks, tax cuts, tariffs, price controls, protectionism, and a fairly volatile, if not outright hostile, approach to trade and business policy. These practices tend to increase inflation pressure and create economic uncertainty. Thus, the move to long-term safe havens of wealth preservation.

YouBet said:

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Hullabaloonatic said:

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YouBet said:

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Hullabaloonatic said:

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YouBet said:

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Fiat monetary policy is theater at this point. It's run its course. I look at it as almost purely for stock market prognosticators from here forward.

Why? Because what I already said. The debt is too high and too far gone for them to do anything about it. It's why they only tweak around the edges these days with rates. It's almost purely psychological for the talking heads to feel like we are doing something to motivate the economy.

If we found ourselves in a period of really high inflation again, what are they gonna do about it? Nothing because they can't. Volcker moves are extinct and mathematically impossible with close to $40T in debt. This is simply proof that we are very near the end of a fiat money system.

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Remind me, does the Fed control government spending? Are they responsible for debt issuance?

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Of course they're not responsible for government spending which is wholly irrelevant to my point.

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You said:

Quote:

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The debt is too high and too far gone for them to do anything about it.

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The Fed isn't responsible for government spending (as it directly relates to debt).

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This was obviously from the POV of the Fed mitigating economic impacts using monetary policy. Don't be obtuse. Of course I wasn't suggesting they can impact the debt directly.

But you are admitting our debt is a problem. How do you reconcile our runaway debt due to spending while simultaneously being for spending as a leftist?

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I just want the record to reflect that one of our resident leftists inadvertently admitted that spending is a problem.

Considering he's been absent since, I can only assume he's been curled up in a corner trying to reconcile his pro-spending leftist beliefs with this subconscious admission that it's also a major problem.

He is desperate to juice the economy before the midterms.

Unprecedented manipulation of the Fed. This will have disastrous effects on the reputation of the US worldwide if it occurs and it already has to an extent.

He's destroying NATO with all this Greenland nonsense and the Fed. Trump has done good things, but these are two epic blunders. What's he going to announce next? A ground war in Asia in wintertime?

Bad Trump.

GeorgiAg said:

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He is desperate to juice the economy before the midterms.

Unprecedented manipulation of the Fed. This will have disastrous effects on the reputation of the US worldwide if it occurs and it already has to an extent.

He's destroying NATO with all this Greenland nonsense and the Fed. Trump has done good things, but these are two epic blunders. What's he going to announce next? A ground war in Asia in wintertime?

Bad Trump.

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The Fed bought 1.3T in mortgage backed securities during a period in which housing prices were at record high - all the while in a period of raising interest rates. Unaffordability has essentially locked huge swaths of buyers out of the marketplace.

This isn't unprecedented manipulation of the Fed. It very much has a precedent - See the Carter administration. I'll give you a headstart, the Fed hasn't always had a dual mandate to include employment.

Manipulation is definitely accurate, but the manipulation is of the Fed AND by the Fed.

I love how everyone says "Nobody is above the law", but when you try to enforce the law against someone with some power, everyone freaks out.

Troglodyte said:

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I love how everyone says "Nobody is above the law", but when you try to enforce the law against someone with some power, everyone freaks out.

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Particularly with international law. It's ultimately subject to sovereignty. If the one who would use the law is the sovereign, then it will work out for them. If you try to use the law against the sovereign, well...good luck.

Obviously then the debate is international law grounded in and derives its authority from moral reason or is it just ultimately the command of the sovereign backed by coercive force. I'd say the latter.

GeorgiAg said:

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He is desperate to juice the economy before the midterms.

Unprecedented manipulation of the Fed. This will have disastrous effects on the reputation of the US worldwide if it occurs and it already has to an extent.

He's destroying NATO with all this Greenland nonsense and the Fed. Trump has done good things, but these are two epic blunders. What's he going to announce next? A ground war in Asia in wintertime?

Bad Trump.

---

I'm trying to figure out how the economy ISN'T juiced already.

3+% GDP growth?

4% unemployment?

DOW hitting records multiple days already this year?



I think the Dems and the media (but I repeat myself) have done a great job of convincing people that the economy sucks when it doesn't.


I also think people never realized that the 20% increase in prices due to all the of high inflation from Biden is now baked in. Many prices will never go down, unfortunately, because of the Biden years. But, inflation has been slowed significantly.

So if the economy is already running so well, why is Trump still demanding the Fed to cut interest rates?

Quote:

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Result - shockingly, the market takes in the new information, and it is not what they told you was going to happen and that you needed to focus on.

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What the market focused on to me was GOP Senators and House Financial Services members vociferously criticizing the President over this and threatening him regarding blanket opposition to any future Fed appointments.

Scott Bessent's team also immediately leaked to Bloomberg and the WSJ that this is a dumb idea and that Trump should be incredibly careful.

From what I have read, this was a bit of wild card op by Bill Pulte and Jeannie Pirro and Trump is kind of disowning it a this point.

It is such an idiotic own goal by the Trump team. They were on the verge of adding another sympathetic governor and seeing Jay Powell ride off into the sunset. Now it appears he is likely to stay on the board for the remainder of the Trump term and the Senate Banking committee is openly saying any Trump nominee is going to be shot down.

Ag with kids said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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He is desperate to juice the economy before the midterms.

Unprecedented manipulation of the Fed. This will have disastrous effects on the reputation of the US worldwide if it occurs and it already has to an extent.

He's destroying NATO with all this Greenland nonsense and the Fed. Trump has done good things, but these are two epic blunders. What's he going to announce next? A ground war in Asia in wintertime?

Bad Trump.

---

I'm trying to figure out how the economy ISN'T juiced already.

3+% GDP growth?

4% unemployment?

DOW hitting records multiple days already this year?



I think the Dems and the media (but I repeat myself) have done a great job of convincing people that the economy sucks when it doesn't.


I also think people never realized that the 20% increase in prices due to all the of high inflation from Biden is now baked in. Many prices will never go down, unfortunately, because of the Biden years. But, inflation has been slowed significantly.

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Unemployment is HIGH. I don't know where fake numbers like 4% come from.
Linkedin is littered with people looking for jobs, highest I have seen in 25 years.

solishu said:

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So if the economy is already running so well, why is Trump still demanding the Fed to cut interest rates?

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Because he's a populist and not a fiscal conservative.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Result - shockingly, the market takes in the new information, and it is not what they told you was going to happen and that you needed to focus on.

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What the market focused on to me was GOP Senators and House Financial Services members vociferously criticizing the President over this and threatening him regarding blanket opposition to any future Fed appointments.

Scott Bessent's team also immediately leaked to Bloomberg and the WSJ that this is a dumb idea and that Trump should be incredibly careful.

From what I have read, this was a bit of wild card op by Bill Pulte and Jeannie Pirro and Trump is kind of disowning it a this point.

It is such an idiotic own goal by the Trump team. They were on the verge of adding another sympathetic governor and seeing Jay Powell ride off into the sunset. Now it appears he is likely to stay on the board for the remainder of the Trump term and the Senate Banking committee is openly saying any Trump nominee is going to be shot down.

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To some degree it doesn't really matter who the chairman is if the Fed board of governors decides to nominate a diff gov for chair of the fomc - in theory, we could have hasset as the fed chair and powell as the fomc chair still leading interest rate policy.

solishu said:

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So if the economy is already running so well, why is Trump still demanding the Fed to cut interest rates?

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Because the current fed funds rate is above the Fed's self described neutral rate. Where it is currently is by their own definition a drag on economic activity.

Quote:

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To some degree it doesn't really matter who the chairman is if the Fed board of governors decides to nominate a diff gov for chair of the fomc - in theory, we could have hasset as the fed chair and powell as the fomc chair still leading interest rate policy.

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Agreed in theory but Trump is trying nominate people like Hassett who are not very well respected by the financial services industry and bond market and he has a rather narrow window to stack pure partisan loyalists like Miran, Hassett, and others.

We could of course live in world where the Fed board just continually gives the middle finger to the chair. Of all the bodies, the Fed was setup to make that sort of deliberation possible.

He likely has to fall back to the Chris Waller types that say the right things to him but also are part of the economics establishment to a degree that he could stop answering Trump's calls.

The Fed has a dual mandate. Inflation and labor. Inflation is higher than we want and employment is lower than we want. They will cut rates, but not the YOLO! cuts that Trump wants. They will move cautiously with an eye on both.

Trump wants control. His instincts are generally good, but not always. The independence of the Fed from political influence has been good. This is akin to let's kill the goose that lays golden eggs to get the eggs inside.

GeorgiAg said:

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The Fed has a dual mandate. Inflation and labor. Inflation is higher than we want and employment is lower than we want. They will cut rates, but not the YOLO! cuts that Trump wants. They will move cautiously with an eye on both.

Trump wants control. His instincts are generally good, but not always. The independence of the Fed from political influence has been good. This is akin to let's kill the goose that lays golden eggs to get the eggs inside.

---

Generally yes but by their own metrics used to justify rate cuts before the 2024 election, they are refusing to cut now.

Really the only difference in the data is who is president.

The Fed would decry Trumps political meddling while it is nakedly acting political.

Sims said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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The Fed has a dual mandate. Inflation and labor. Inflation is higher than we want and employment is lower than we want. They will cut rates, but not the YOLO! cuts that Trump wants. They will move cautiously with an eye on both.

Trump wants control. His instincts are generally good, but not always. The independence of the Fed from political influence has been good. This is akin to let's kill the goose that lays golden eggs to get the eggs inside.

---

Generally yes but by their own metrics used to justify rate cuts before the 2024 election, they are refusing to cut now.

Really the only difference in the data is who is president.

The Fed would decry Trumps political meddling while it is nakedly acting political.

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They are not refusing to cut now. They just cut it three times over the last few months.

There's a range of views out there on the neutral rate from about 2.5% to 3.7%. They're in the upper end of that range. And those views have been moving upward due to all the inflationary pressures out there... national deficit of 6% to 7% per year adding to an already high national debt, coupled with Trump's reshoring initiative which is very likely to be inflationary also.

Plenty of rational reasons to be thoughtful and cautious. The bond market sees that and it's a big reason why long term rates actually moved UP after the Fed starting cutting rates.

Trump and others are still addicted to the sugar-high from ridiculously low rates that were artificially manipulated downward by earlier versions of the Fed. We gottta pay the bill at some point. There are no free rides despite what the Democrats try to tell us.

meanwhile

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

flown-the-coop said:

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Ervin Burrell said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Ervin Burrell said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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No he's not. This senator is throwing a temper tantrum like one of my kids. If Powell is clean just submit the docs and make Trump and his administration look like fools wasting tax payer money. But Powell going on Twitter to cry and this senator who has beef with Trump refusing to do his job and hold up a vacant chair is peak absurdity.

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Lol, I've seen a lot more temper tantrums on social media from Trump than all US Senators combined.

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You don't understand. When Trump posts senile ramblings at 5 AM on the toilet, it's "owning the triggered libtards." If anyone else does something remotely similar, they're "throwing a tantrum."

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Trump doesn't sit on the toilet. His poop is carefully collected and wrapped in gold leaf before being freeze dried and kept for future research. The pee, as golden and pure as it is, is donated to the Potomac.

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And you'd be the first to taste it, if asked.

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Better than Biden pudding in a cone.

Make crass statements about where Trump tweets from at 5am and expect crass responses.

And given what Powell has spent on his "palace", Trump hay have to up his production and sell his Golden Trump Nuggets to pay for the new digs.

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He could just scam his supporters. They could try using their tariff dividend checks to pay their tithes.

HumpitPuryear said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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CrackerJackAg said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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It's just more bad Trump. Very dumb.

He's leaving in May and Trump can announce his replacement any day.

I don't agree with pushing rates lower with GDP ~3%, inflation ~3%, and unemployment ~4.5% and interest rates at historical norms. Doesn't make sense.

That said, he sees it differently and can put his own guy in shortly. This runs a real risk of the bond market demanding HIGHER rates for the 10 year note and beyond, which will just keep mortgage rates at current levels or higher.

You're going to criminally indict the Fed Chair five months before his term ends? On questionable grounds?

Just so dumb... no need for it.

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I see this through the lenses of debt repayment and the ability to a a budget and still spend large mounts of money.

The governments entire budget would be gone instantly with 10% interest. Entire budget would be debt repayment. 3% is 1/3 the debt payment.

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This is Trumps primary goal. Get short term interest rates low so the debt can be refinanced as cheaply as possible. It's really the only thing that will keep the government out of default. I don't think Trump's team cares much about inflation. It actually works in favor of the government.

But the FRB renovation is outrageous even by DC standards and it's incredibly difficult to explain and justify where the money went. DOJ is right to go have a look. Powell could be committing fraud and also be under attack from Trump for policy. Both can be true.

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I don't think that project is that outrageous after a quick look at their budget and scope. It's a renovation and expansion from 400k sf to 1.1 million sf for $2.5 billion. Trump tore down the East Wing and is building his 90k sf ballroom for $300-$400 million. All things considered, they're roughly the same ballpark, and the FRB renovation is probably on the cheaper side comparatively.

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1) We aren't paying for the ballroom
2) the vast majority of the expansion to the federal reserve is a parking garage.

Another datapoint - the budget for the new currency facility in MD which was DOGEd was $1B. This was a new from the ground up very large building with some very very specialized equipment and systems.

And another - Ford's new 2.1 million sqft HQ campus is estimated at $1.2B.

$2.5B is completely outrageous especially considering that this is on top of the money spent to renovate the Martin building. I'm all for historic preservation but that project is just stupid.

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1. No **** Sherlock. It's a cost comparison in a similar market. Who is paying is irrelevant to how much they're paying. How hard is that to understand?

2. The fact you try to make cost comparisons to completely different construction types and project types in vastly different markets shows you have clue what your talking about.

2.a. You're trying to compare what is effectively a green site, new construction manufacturing building to an urban, historic renovation/new construction project. The fact they're in roughly the same geographic region is all they have in common. Historic renovations involve expensive preservation work. There is a lot of documentation to match what is being preserved, and a lot of work in duplicating it where it has to be replaced. Beyond that, asbestos is everywhere and must be abated. I've seen elementary schools from the 40's and 50's undergo renovations where it was in the flooring, the walls, the roofing, the insulation, the fireproofing, and just about everywhere else you could imagine, and all of it had to be abated. That process is incredibly expensive on a $/sqft basis. Being in an urban area, site logistics are going to be much tighter and more complex than building in an open field. Delivery schedules and laydown areas must be closely managed

Comparatively, green field new construction is the cheapest, last complicated project you could do. The avenues for complications are absolutely minimal. On top of that, the BEP building is essentially just a big box. There will undoubtedly be fancier office spaces in part of it, but the bulk is going to be a box for printing and engraving areas, warehousing, shipping, etc.

2.b. Ford's campus is an even worse comparison. It's not only a completely different kind of job, it's not even in the same region and public vs private. Again, historical preservation and renovation job versus ground up new construction. New construction is much easier with fewer complications and unknowns. However, the regional costs are wildly different. COL is about 35% higher in DC than Detroit. Being public versus private is also a big deal. Federal jobs are not something you just do like an office building. There are a lot of rules around plan and document handling, inspections and construction documentation, billing, certified payroll, etc that can make it incredibly complex. (I have worked with USACE on a federal job, and it is not an experience I would like to repeat.) All of that is priced in. Private owners and their reps can do whatever they want in terms of contractual requirements and acceptance.

2.c. The ballroom is a project on federal property and subject to many of the same additional costs, and it's a partial renovation and new construction job since there is stuff beneath it that will have to be worked around and with. It is less intensive than historical preservation because they're tearing down much of the above ground structure, but the bunker underneath and infrastructure are staying, AFAICT. Being down the street, it is going to be 1:1 with local labor, material, and transportation costs. If you want to ballpark current costs to compare, it's about the best you're going to do.

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Who is paying is not relevant? It's certainly relevant to me. I expect the government to spend my money efficiently. We are, at least indirectly, supporting the cost of the FRB renovations. Do you pay taxes?

The Ford example is to illustrate that the private sector can build grand new buildings for much less than the government. It's twice the size and less than half the budget. COL doesn't explain that. Try again.

The BoE print facility is not a simple project. It's not a generic tilt-wall warehouse. Have you seen the plans and specs? Yet even with this very specialized facility, and the bloated inefficiencies of the government, it was "only" budgeted for $1B.

I'm not looking to justify the cost of the FRB renovation. It's extravagant and unnecessary. Again, I appreciate historic preservation, but at some point it's just more efficient to implode the existing and build new. Why does the whole FRB need to be at this location? Why not move them? CISA has a new HQ under construction at St Elizabeth for a fraction of the cost. Why don't they just stay in leased office space? A lot of fedgov agencies are doing that. There are lots of options that don't cost $2.5B. The whole FRB renovation project is going to be at least $3.1B. That's ridiculous. And a cost over-run of this magnitude definitely justifies some investigation. If you aren't concerned about a 30% cost overrun I want to be your GC.

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The Federal Reserve does not use taxpayer dollars to fund the construction or renovation of its buildings.

The Federal Reserve funds itself including its facilities through its own operations, not through congressional appropriations. Its income primarily comes from:
Interest on the large portfolio of U.S. Treasury and agency securities it holds
Fees for financial services it provides to banks

Because the Fed is self-funded, its building projects including the Marriner S. Eccles headquarters renovation do not draw from the federal budget. That's why debates over the renovation cost are political and symbolic, but not about taxpayer spending.