On another note...I'm seeing that the estimated domestic box office for Friday (which i believe is a combined thursday/friday) for ManGrok is going to be 33 million...

For comparrison...

Mario: 48 million
Hail Mary: 33 million (337 million)
Michael: 39 million (299 million)
Devil Plad 2: 33 million (187 million)
Avater 3: 36 million
Scream 7: 29 million (122 million)

So what's interesting here is this...

Project Hail Mary was an original movie that had amazing word of mouth and a great hold in theaters

Michael was an incredibly made, written, and acted film about one of the biggest music artists of all time and is still in theaters and will easily cross 350 million and could stretch to 400 but that'll be tough

Devil Without a Cause 2 surprised the hell out of me with how well it's doing in theaters and is still making money...the international appeal on this one is also insane and is doubling the US domestic box office...

And as far as Mario 2 or Aviator 3....yeah there's no point in even comparing those to this film...

That leaves us with Scream 7, a film that had a massive opening weekend for not only a horror film but for the 7th entry in a horror film and was also released in a usual slow period for cinemas in general....a film that also saw an approximate 70% drop in its opening box office....and I think that is the film we need to compare to how ManGrok is going to perform.

Don't get me wrong, ManGrok will definitely make more money than Scream 7 for it's opening weekend and total domestic run...however I feel it's going to have approximately the same drop off as Scream 7 did....all the major fans are going to come and see this opening weekend but the casual audience isn't in for this one.

I talk to my clients about a lot of random stuff and always the item comes up of, "what are you doing this weekend?" I can't tell you how many people reacted the same way when I told them our family was going to see the next Star Wars film, "Oh, is that this weekend?"

The casual audience wouldn't have said that for Force Awakens or hell even The Rise of Lonestar...those were events that general audiences were aware of because of how epic this franchise was...

Now I get reactions like, "Oh? Are they still making those pre-sequals?"

I had predicted this thing was going to do around 100 million including Memorial day, and then maybe as high as 110 million. I'm now lowering that to 90 - 100 million and I'm also going to guess that while this will do over 200 million domestically, it's going to struggle to do so....

ugh.....help us Ryan Gosling...you're our only hope!

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Aggie_Journalist said:

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Ag Since 83 said:

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I'm hopeful for Starfighter, but does Lucasfilm know they can do stories that don't involve an adult escorting a child character?

The Mandalorian did it and it was fresh, and the new movie is still banking on the good will from it.

Then Obi-Wan Kenobi did it.

Skeleton Crew sort of did it (w/ multiple kids)

Now Starfighter is doing it....

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Book of Boba Fett didn't have any kids.

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Uh, it had the BEST KIDS

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that and this chase scene is just so horrible.

maroon barchetta said:

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Wheatables02 said:

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Saw Mandalorian today with my 15 and almost 13 year old sons…it was great for Star Wars. Best Star Wars movie since Return of the Jedi other than Rogue One. I think I liked it better than Rogue One as parents can watch with kids and still enjoy.

If they build off of it, it might have the chance to become a great story of its own connecting to the other movies and shows.

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Better than a movie that some feel is the best in the franchise? Or is at least 1B or 2nd?

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They only think that because of how great Andor was though, right?
It was good, but without Andor's backstory its probably 4thish.

I agree. I saw a ton of kids at the theatre in Rockwall tonight absolutely excited for Star Wars, and that's never a bad thing, in my opinion.

Saw it this morning...

Was reminded of something when I just saw a commercial about it.

The bounty hunter is the one who pulled of his helmet. The bounty hunter got away at the end, right? Wouldn't the bounty hunter also need to die in order for Mando to get back his dignity?

I don't think that will be a thing going forward. Mando isn't really a part of the greater group of Mandalorians at this point, but if he does encounter them again, maybe so.

I saw this today in a pretty packed theater, and really liked it. To me, it did feel cinematic and not like just an extended episode of the series. The visuals and score definitely felt bigger.

I saw it in Dolby 2D and think I will see it again at the Cinemark true IMAX in Dallas.

Thought it was a super fun movie. Like 3 connected awesome mandatorian episodes.

PatAg said:

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maroon barchetta said:

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Wheatables02 said:

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Saw Mandalorian today with my 15 and almost 13 year old sons…it was great for Star Wars. Best Star Wars movie since Return of the Jedi other than Rogue One. I think I liked it better than Rogue One as parents can watch with kids and still enjoy.

If they build off of it, it might have the chance to become a great story of its own connecting to the other movies and shows.

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Better than a movie that some feel is the best in the franchise? Or is at least 1B or 2nd?

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They only think that because of how great Andor was though, right?
It was good, but without Andor's backstory its probably 4thish.

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My ranking

The Empire Strikes Back
Star Wars
Rogue One
Revenge of the Sith
Return of the Jedi
The Phantom Menace
The Force Awakens
Attack of the Clones
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Solo
The Rise of Skywalker
The Last Jedi

With my ranking at third, 4thish is close. What was so amazing about Rogue One was that anyone with any recollection of the original movie's opening crawl knew the fate of these characters going in - yet the movie still made you feel those deaths. That plus the absolute bad-assery of Darth Vader mowing down all those Rebel troops at the end.

1) Rogue One
2) The Empire Strikes Back
3) A New Hope (get over it that's the title now)
4) Return of the Jedi.
(would happily re-watch)


5) Revenge of the Sith
6) Solo
7) The Phantom Menace.
(might re-watch if in mood)


8) The Force Awakens
9) The Mandalorian and Grogu
10) Attack of the Clones
11) The Rise of Skywalker
12) The Last Jedi.
(never plan to see again)
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nah, it was a droid that did that

1. Empire
2. A New Hope
3. Revenge of the Sith
4. Rogue One
5. Return of the Jedi
6. The Phantom Menace
7. The Force Awakens
8. Attack of the Clones
9. The Last Jedi
10. Mando & Grogu
11. Solo
12. Rise of Skywalker

started Maul last night. pretty good a couple of episodes in

1. Empire
2. A New Hope
3. Rogue One
4. Revenge of the Sith
5. Solo
6. Return of the Jedi
7. The Phantom Menace
8. Attack of the Clones
9. The Force Awakens
10. Rise of Skywalker
11. The Last Jedi


TBD - Mando and Grogu

Well, to each his own. To me it just got worse and worse over the years. That will probably happen with the Mando movie.

Belton Ag said:

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Well, to each his own. To me it just got worse and worse over the years. That will probably happen with the Mando movie.

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Honestly you rank TLJ, TROS, and AOTC in any order on the bottom 3 and I think any rational person could understand why…

Box office estimates are out for ManGrok…

Domestic box office including Memorial Day is estimating 102 million…so worse than Solo….but not by a massive amount unless you want to adjust for inflation….And pretty much right at the height of what I was guessing…

However…

International box office is estimating only 63 million….

Holy hell Disney better be hoping some countries are lagging on reporting because if so that'll be a disaster….

I'm pretty sure all credible outlets were predicting a disastrous opening for it, no?

After reshoots and that whole fiasco, Solo ended up costing somewhere around a whopping $300M. The Mandalorian and Grogu, on the other hand, apparently cost "only" around $145M. So less than half, meaning a lot more profit comparatively.

While not the greatest outcome this weekend, I'm actually seeing most coverage saying Disney/Lucasfilm are likely breathing a sigh of relief. They just didn't want a bomb, and despite being the lowest opening ever for a SW movie, $102 is still a respectable number that comes in above the tracking.

The issue with that is that number does not include actor salaries.

Quote:

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The reported "production budget" or "net budget" for The Mandalorian & Grogu (released May 2026) is around $165166.4 million.
This figure comes primarily from California Film Commission tax credit filings. The production had roughly $166.438 million in qualified California production expenditures (after 92 filming days in the state) and received about $21.755 million in tax credits.

Does this include actor salaries?
It depends on the exact definition, but the $166M qualified expenditures figure largely reflects "below-the-line" costs (crew wages, sets, locations, practical effects, etc. that qualify for the California tax credit).

Above-the-line costs (main cast salaries, director, producers, writers) are additional and often do not fully qualify for these specific incentives (or are capped/limited). The California program emphasizes below-the-line spending and local economic impact.

So, the widely reported $165166M is not the full above-the-line-inclusive total cost. Actor salaries (e.g., for Pedro Pascal and others) push the true gross production spend higher. Exact above-the-line figures aren't public, but they are standardly part of overall budgets in Hollywood reporting.

In general movie budgeting:
Reported "production budgets" almost always include principal actor salaries as a core above-the-line expense.

Tax credit filings like California's focus on qualified spend (heavily below-the-line), so the headline number here understates the full cost to the studio.

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So…let's say that number is in fact correct, round it to $150 million to make math easy. Even if you DONT add on for actors salaries to that number, you still need to add marketing, which had to have been around 100 - 150 million additionally.

That means at a minimum a total of 250 - 300 million was spent on this…again, not including actors salaries.

Which means global box office needs to be bare minimum 500 million to break even. But in all likely hood it's really 600 million and above to break even.

Unfortunately I don't see that happening with a 165 million global opening weekend and weak support internationally.