High-variance Aggies enter SEC play needing 10 conference wins

Considering the circumstances of when Bucky McMillan was hired — two weeks late to the transfer portal process when most of the best players had already signed — you’d take a 10-3 start in non-conference play in a heartbeat.

Add in the other challenges Texas A&M has faced thus far.

Growing pains from the new system and a completely new roster. Mackenzie Mgbako, Pop Isaacs and Rylan Griffen all missed multiple games due to injury. Now, Mgbako is done for the year.

That said, this team has already battled through so much adversity to get to SEC play within striking distance in a wide-open league.

Despite playing just four games at full strength, this season is not completely lost, as A&M will fight tooth and nail to make noise in 2026 with an exciting brand of basketball. It will be an uphill battle, but they can’t do it alone. The Aggies need the 12th Man to rally around them and make Reed Arena as intimidating an environment as possible, because the clearest path to success in this league is taking care of business at home.

That all starts against LSU on Saturday at 3 p.m. CT.

First, let’s look at where the Ags currently stand heading into SEC play.

The metrics show this team is within striking distance in a league that got 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament last year. While the SEC hasn’t been as dominant to start 2025-26, there is still an expectation that they could get double-digit teams in again this year, but the cut line looks to be closer to 10 teams than 14.

When McMillan was hired, he promised to bring an entertaining brand of basketball and one of the nation’s best offenses to College Station. He has delivered so far. Just look at the stats.

In the first 13 games, McMillan’s Aggies set the program record for the most times scoring over 100 points in a single season (6). Across the previous 17 years, A&M reached triple digits just five times. With 112 against Jacksonville, 118 against East Texas A&M and 111 against Prairie View A&M, the Aggies became just the second power conference team ever to score over 110 points in three straight games.

They enter conference play inside the nation’s top 20 in a dozen offensive stats. When was the last time you could say that about an A&M hoops team? They’ve gone from the worst offense in the league to one of the best.

The Aggies have undergone the most drastic identity change in college basketball, going from Buzz Ball to Bucky Ball. No team across the country has improved its shooting percentages more than A&M from last season to this season.

Turning the page to SEC play, the Maroon & White have their work cut out for them. Their magic number looks to be 10 wins needed to secure an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, but before we can even discuss March Madness, it’s important to adjust expectations without Mgbako.

The beauty of this system is that it’s not reliant on one player, so the Aggies can survive without their star forward. Everybody in that locker room understands that their path to success in the league just lost any margin for error they had left. This was never going to be the breakthrough year with the cards McMillan was dealt, but it can be a building block for the future of this program to build up a loyal fanbase and solidify a culture within the locker room. We’ve learned that this exciting brand of basketball is worth the price of admission, as every time this team steps on the floor, an offensive record is in danger of being broken. The best thing moving forward is for the fanbase to rally around this team through the ups and downs of SEC play and help them climb this mountain. Making the NCAA Tournament in Year 1 with all of the adversity they’ve faced would be an incredible achievement. They will get blown out a couple of times. They will win some games they shouldn’t. That’s life in the SEC as a high-variance team reliant on 3-point shooting, so strap in and get ready for the rollercoaster.

Here’s what the predictive metrics project A&M’s record will be in SEC play:

• BPI: 9-9
• KenPom: 8-10
• Bart Torvik: 8-10
• Haslametrics: 7-11

Their magic number is 10. A 10-8 record in SEC play to finish likely inside the top eight of a top two league in the country with 20 wins will be more than enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. It’s an uphill battle without Mgbako, but it's not impossible. It starts with taking care of business at home. Most of A&M’s toughest games are on the road, which may not be the worst thing in the world when you’re trying to hold serve at home. They were probably going to lose to Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Tennessee, regardless of where those games were played, so there’s no shame in potentially losing a Quadrant 1A road game.

Here’s a breakdown of A&M’s SEC schedule:

Winnable games at home (Have to handle their business)

• Jan. 3 vs. LSU
• Jan. 10 vs. Oklahoma
• Jan. 21 vs. Mississippi State
• Jan. 24 vs. South Carolina
• Feb. 11 vs. Missouri
• Feb. 18 vs. Ole Miss
• Feb. 28 vs. Texas

If you win these seven home games against the seven teams projected to be in the bottom half of the league, you’re putting yourself in a really good position given the outside circumstances. These could be the only seven games they win all year in league play, but they could also drop a couple of these games. They won’t get any easier than these seven home games, so winning them is crucial.

Swing games on the road (Would be nice to win a couple)

• Jan. 17 at Texas
• Feb. 21 at Oklahoma
• March 7 at LSU

All three road games against their mirror opponents will be tough, but if you’re trying to find 10 wins, these are the next three in line that they would need to hit that magic number. The Aggies might lose all three of these games, but finding a way to snag one or two of these on the road could be massive steps in the right direction for Bucky Ball in Year 1.

Really tough games (Wouldn’t surprise to pop one of these teams)

• Jan. 6 at Auburn
• Jan. 31 at Georgia
• Feb 7 vs. Florida
• March 3 vs. Kentucky

The Aggies might be close to double-digit underdogs in each of these games, but with how they shoot 3-pointers, they can be electrifying on any given night. There’s going to be a night where everything falls into place, and you look up at the end of the game to see the Maroon & White just hit 19 triples. They’d need one of those performances to knock off one of these teams, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win a game they shouldn’t against this group.

No sugarcoating it (Things could get ugly here)

• Jan. 13 at Tennessee
• Feb. 4 at Alabama
• Feb. 14 at Vanderbilt
• Feb. 25 at Arkansas

These are the four highest-ranked teams in the SEC heading into 2026, and A&M draws all four of them on the road. You might see a couple of blowouts in the wrong direction in these games, but how the Ags respond to these results will be critical moving forward.

There’s something exciting about rallying behind an underdog story. We don’t know if they’ll win four games or 11, but what we do know is this brand of basketball is entertaining, electrifying and dangerous when they’re firing on all cylinders. That excitement is worth the price of admission and worth supporting this team as they look to climb this mountain in 2026.