College football analyst Josh Pate joined us for Thursday's edition of TexAgs Live to take a deep dive into the spread of depth in the SEC and its comparison to the top four Big Ten teams. Pate also discussed where teams fell in the US LBM Coaches Poll released on Monday.
Key notes from Josh Pate interview
- I think LSU fits the mold of potentially getting knocked out of the playoff early. Florida’s wide receiver issues are real right now. They have a trip to LSU and Miami in the first month of the season. Alabama would have a tough opening schedule if Wisconsin and Florida State were still as valid of teams. Outside the SEC, I would say Notre Dame. They play A&M, and they play Miami in Week 1. By Halloween, they will have played their six toughest games. It’s not just who you play, it’s when you play them. No one is without issue. There are no superpower teams. I made it comparatively analogous to a piece of toast with not enough butter, so you melt the butter behind your knee and scrape it thin, which is how depth is. Who’s good enough at covering up their deficiencies?
- I think the raw talent is there for a lot of teams. Texas and Notre Dame have done a really good job of stacking talent. When you go through spring ball, the media gets to watch a 15-minute practice and a spring game. You see the talent, then you read glass-half-full practice reports because pads aren’t even on yet. You get convinced there can’t be a drop off unless your starters get hurt. Year after year, we see that’s not the case. Inevitably, it could be Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Notre Dame or Miami. Guys who have left will create deficiencies. If Texas were an A-minus on their interior defensive line last year. If they have a B this year, maybe they have an insane edge rush, or Arch Manning is better than people expect. Once Notre Dame gets their quarterback figured out, they have a lot of talented receivers. Maybe their defense takes a step down, and their offense takes a step up. When you lose really good players, you should not be shocked if that position group takes a step down. People have expectations built up during months when there is no football.
- Oregon and Penn State do not play anyone of note out of conference. Unlike the SEC, which goes half a dozen teams deep. The Big Ten is three or four teams deep. I think there’s more pressure on Texas than on Ohio State in Week 1. There’s more pressure on Oklahoma than Michigan in Week 2. If the Big Ten goes 0-2, it’s not a huge deal. If the SEC goes 0-2, that’s a disaster for the SEC across every headline. They spent a lot of time hyping the nine-game league schedule, but the insinuation is that they play a tougher schedule.
- I think it’s wide open this year. Normally, I would have a first tier that could be just one team deep. Never more than three. The gap between one and 15 is 15 points. Normally, that’s the gap between one and six. I expect that to compress more. If someone asks who the team to beat is, I don’t have an answer. Maybe by October, we'll get a clear picture. Maybe it’s not clear all season. In football terms, that’s a great season. Anything can happen on any weekend. I can’t see anyone separating themselves this year.
- Regarding the NFL RedZone, that’s a league that has an all-encompassing media rights deal, talking about college football, which does not have one. Roger Goodell is not dumb. What he sees on the horizon is a college football media rights deal. It puts more money on the table, so everyone can stop whining and gouging fans with prices. It also opens us up to immediately having a college football RedZone. ESPN had the goalie, but only the games ESPN and ABC had rights to. That was not the equivalent. I think a college football RedZone will happen. I love the idea that different teams can play on NBC, FOX or Amazon, etc. But that means broadcast crews and networks have to be familiar with the entire sport and promote it, too. You can’t have broadcasters tanking for a conference. A college football media rights package would cost between three and five times collectively what these media rights deals currently land. If that’s halfway the case, we’re headed that direction.
- It’s possible the NFL takes over college football. It would be smart to take it over and never have their sticker on it. This happens a lot in my world. Big media companies bankroll shows without their signage so that it appears independent. A lot of the necessary mechanisms are things the NFL has done forever. There are also complaints about the playoff running into the NFL in December and January. The NFL just went into business with ESPN, so it wouldn’t shock me if they went into business with college football for similar reasons. College football is a free pipeline for development and marketing for the NFL. If Myles Garret is in the NBA, he goes straight from high school, and not many know him. Instead, he developed in college, and he was a household name when he was drafted into the NFL. I think it’s time the NFL gives some back to college football.
- Looking at the US LBM Coaches Poll, Florida could be a shocker team in the playoffs. A&M has no business being at No. 21. Ole Miss could make a run. Texas A&M, as well. It’s mainly Big Ten and SEC teams. The lowest team I could see making a run is A&M at No. 21. I would have A&M at least 10 spots higher than No. 21.
