We're just over a month from Selection Sunday, and with a couple of our larger games in the rearview, it's time to take a look at how the NCAA Tournament is lining up. First, some housekeeping notes:
1 - 1 - Michigan
1 - 2 - Arizona
1 - 3 - Duke
1 - 4 - Houston - I expect UConn will be in this slot in the committee's initial rankings and in most bracketologies, but their upcoming schedule is absolutely awful compared to Houston's, and by Selection Sunday I imagine the Coogs' metrics will have overtaken the Huskies.
2 - 5 - UCONN
2 - 6 - Illinois
2 - 7 - Purdue
2 - 8 - Iowa State
3 - 9 - Florida - one of the harder teams to project right now. Predictive metrics darling but the resume metrics are behind.
3 - 10 - Kansas
3 - 11 - Nebraska - If they lose their first NCAA Tournament game this year it might be time to just fold the program because cosmic forces are working against them.
3 - 12 - Gonzaga
4 - 13 - Vanderbilt
4 - 14 - Michigan State
4 - 15 - Virginia
4 - 16 - Tennessee - This will be kind of a sub-plot to watch as we near the end of the season, but there are two pods way out west and only two teams even remotely close to them. One or two spots on the seed line could be the difference in a fairly easy trip for your fans versus getting shipped out west. Arizona could finish first or sixteenth and likely be heading to San Diego either way, for teams like Tennessee, one spot could be the difference between Tampa and Portland.
5 - 17 - Alabama
5 - 18 - Louisville
5 - 19 - Arkansas
5 - 20 - Texas Tech
Tier II: We have to put a break somewhere, so let's put it right here because there's a decent break here by the Torvik projections. Even though it's pretty unlikely we end up on the 6 line at this point these teams could fall back toward us so worth keeping an eye on.
6 - 21 - Iowa - Iowa could move up the seed line just by keeping most of their remaining games close. Absolutely insane schedule here.
6 - 22 - St. John's - Lower than current brackets because their metrics are going to take a hit over the next month unless they beat UCONN again.
6 - 23 - Clemson
6 - 24 - North Carolina
7 - 25 - St. Louis
7 - 26 - BYU - Talk about a team no 2 seed wants to draw.
7 - 27 - Kentucky - Another team with a wild remaining schedule. A home date with Vandy, a team that already beat them by 25, is their third easiest game remaining per Torvik.
7 - 28 - Utah St.
8 - 29 - Auburn
8 - 30 - NC State
8 - 31 - Texas A&M - Last night's loss to Missouri didn't change much here other than shave a little bit off the high end potential. It now seems extremely unlikely that we can climb above the 7 line. The path here is still very straightforward, but it can get slippery fast, especially if we drop both the Vandy and Arkansas games. At that point our only win over a top 40 opponent would be the Auburn win, and that's a dangerous way to live on the bubble. Only super dangerous game here is the Ole Miss game, the last quad 3 game of the season.
8 - 32 - Wisconsin
9 - 33 - Villanova
9 - 34 - Indiana
9 - 35 - SMU
9 - 36 - Georgia
10 - 37 - Texas - Interesting situation here. Texas has a brutal remaining schedule, and because of it they're probably either going to be in fairly easily or not at all. They'd have to walk a very weird path to end up on the 11 line. Tourneycast has them as a likely 9 seed, but only in the tournament in 60% of all projections
10 - 38 - UCLA
10 - 39 - Miami
10 - 40 - St. Mary's
Tier III: The bubble: For now let's say the bubble really starts here. Torvik gives all of these teams above this line at least a 70% chance of making the field with the exception of Texas which is in kind of a unique situation.
11 - 41 - Santa Clara - There's a lot more to like here compared to Miami of Ohio (see below.) Santa Clara has non-con wins over Nevada and Minnesota. They also get one more crack at both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, with the Gonzaga game coming at home on Saturday.
11 - 42 - UCF
11 - 43 - SDSU
11 - 44 - Ohio State
11 - 45 - USC
11 - 45 - Missouri
The bubble ends here
+1 TCU
+2 Virginia Tech
+3 New Mexico
Stray thoughts:
?? - Miami (OH) - This is going to be one of the most hotly debated topics the next month unless they start dropping games. The Redhawks are 24-0 with a NET of 50 and a NET WAB of 33, but will they get in without winning the MAC Tournament? If I had to guess right now I'd say yes, provided the loss is in the conference championship game. I don't think the committee will leave out a team with a perfect regular season record. Helps that the MAC tournament ends the same weekend as the major conference tournaments, they definitely wouldn't want to give the committee several days to think about it.
Oklahoma State - This is a good example of why I think looking at a projection is so important. This is a team that's probably "on the bubble" by most bracketologists but has no real practical chance of making the tournament unless they pull off several absolutely huge upsets to close the season.
- Unless otherwise noted, all data comes from Torvik because of how much easier his site is to navigate.
- This is a projection, not an "if the tournament were today" - I don't see much point in worrying about if the tournament were today, because it's not. So this projection looks at upcoming games, unbalanced schedules, and other factors that will play into where teams are ultimately likely to land.
- Because this is a projection, there will be some things here that might not initially make sense. There will also be some things where people reply "if we win out and (name) loses out, I think (thing could happen.)" And they're right, they could, but it's probably extremely unlikely to happen
- The bubble can also get kinda wonky as we approach Selection Sunday but for now we're just going to keep it simple and not worry about auto bids. These are just the best potential at-large teams, in order, with no regard for how likely they are to win their respective conference tournaments.
- This is obviously an A&M-centric look at things. There are hundreds of other folks on the web you can read if you want more thorough breakdowns of some of the situations here. I will point out some that I find the most interesting.
1 - 1 - Michigan
1 - 2 - Arizona
1 - 3 - Duke
1 - 4 - Houston - I expect UConn will be in this slot in the committee's initial rankings and in most bracketologies, but their upcoming schedule is absolutely awful compared to Houston's, and by Selection Sunday I imagine the Coogs' metrics will have overtaken the Huskies.
2 - 5 - UCONN
2 - 6 - Illinois
2 - 7 - Purdue
2 - 8 - Iowa State
3 - 9 - Florida - one of the harder teams to project right now. Predictive metrics darling but the resume metrics are behind.
3 - 10 - Kansas
3 - 11 - Nebraska - If they lose their first NCAA Tournament game this year it might be time to just fold the program because cosmic forces are working against them.
3 - 12 - Gonzaga
4 - 13 - Vanderbilt
4 - 14 - Michigan State
4 - 15 - Virginia
4 - 16 - Tennessee - This will be kind of a sub-plot to watch as we near the end of the season, but there are two pods way out west and only two teams even remotely close to them. One or two spots on the seed line could be the difference in a fairly easy trip for your fans versus getting shipped out west. Arizona could finish first or sixteenth and likely be heading to San Diego either way, for teams like Tennessee, one spot could be the difference between Tampa and Portland.
5 - 17 - Alabama
5 - 18 - Louisville
5 - 19 - Arkansas
5 - 20 - Texas Tech
Tier II: We have to put a break somewhere, so let's put it right here because there's a decent break here by the Torvik projections. Even though it's pretty unlikely we end up on the 6 line at this point these teams could fall back toward us so worth keeping an eye on.
6 - 21 - Iowa - Iowa could move up the seed line just by keeping most of their remaining games close. Absolutely insane schedule here.
6 - 22 - St. John's - Lower than current brackets because their metrics are going to take a hit over the next month unless they beat UCONN again.
6 - 23 - Clemson
6 - 24 - North Carolina
7 - 25 - St. Louis
7 - 26 - BYU - Talk about a team no 2 seed wants to draw.
7 - 27 - Kentucky - Another team with a wild remaining schedule. A home date with Vandy, a team that already beat them by 25, is their third easiest game remaining per Torvik.
7 - 28 - Utah St.
8 - 29 - Auburn
8 - 30 - NC State
8 - 31 - Texas A&M - Last night's loss to Missouri didn't change much here other than shave a little bit off the high end potential. It now seems extremely unlikely that we can climb above the 7 line. The path here is still very straightforward, but it can get slippery fast, especially if we drop both the Vandy and Arkansas games. At that point our only win over a top 40 opponent would be the Auburn win, and that's a dangerous way to live on the bubble. Only super dangerous game here is the Ole Miss game, the last quad 3 game of the season.
8 - 32 - Wisconsin
9 - 33 - Villanova
9 - 34 - Indiana
9 - 35 - SMU
9 - 36 - Georgia
10 - 37 - Texas - Interesting situation here. Texas has a brutal remaining schedule, and because of it they're probably either going to be in fairly easily or not at all. They'd have to walk a very weird path to end up on the 11 line. Tourneycast has them as a likely 9 seed, but only in the tournament in 60% of all projections
10 - 38 - UCLA
10 - 39 - Miami
10 - 40 - St. Mary's
Tier III: The bubble: For now let's say the bubble really starts here. Torvik gives all of these teams above this line at least a 70% chance of making the field with the exception of Texas which is in kind of a unique situation.
11 - 41 - Santa Clara - There's a lot more to like here compared to Miami of Ohio (see below.) Santa Clara has non-con wins over Nevada and Minnesota. They also get one more crack at both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, with the Gonzaga game coming at home on Saturday.
11 - 42 - UCF
11 - 43 - SDSU
11 - 44 - Ohio State
11 - 45 - USC
11 - 45 - Missouri
The bubble ends here
+1 TCU
+2 Virginia Tech
+3 New Mexico
Stray thoughts:
?? - Miami (OH) - This is going to be one of the most hotly debated topics the next month unless they start dropping games. The Redhawks are 24-0 with a NET of 50 and a NET WAB of 33, but will they get in without winning the MAC Tournament? If I had to guess right now I'd say yes, provided the loss is in the conference championship game. I don't think the committee will leave out a team with a perfect regular season record. Helps that the MAC tournament ends the same weekend as the major conference tournaments, they definitely wouldn't want to give the committee several days to think about it.
Oklahoma State - This is a good example of why I think looking at a projection is so important. This is a team that's probably "on the bubble" by most bracketologists but has no real practical chance of making the tournament unless they pull off several absolutely huge upsets to close the season.
