I was just quoted approximately $40,000 for a new system. That seems outrageous. Anyone done this recently? What should I expect to pay for this?

I paid $12000 for a 4 ton Lennox SL22 with CBK48 several months ago. I did not have any duct work done.

Another contractor was a few thousand more, a third contractor was double, plus the price of my business class airfare to/from Europe.

OP, I think that's really high. I would expect mid $20s. You may give Northwind a call. They installed a 3t trane two stage for me last year for $10k (condenser and coil, furnace not replaced). They installed a 5t trane single stage system for my dad a few weeks ago for $14k (complete system). Ask for Brigette.

Wise Guys just installed a 5 Ton Daikin Fit (Variable Speed, 1 zone) for around $15.5k.

I got a quote last summer to replace a 5-ton 3-zone system. It was ~$16K for single speed, ~24K for 2-speed (I'm using the wrong term here, but can't remember the correct term) and ~$36K for variable speed. This was condenser, air handler, and zone board, reusing existing duct work. This was for Lennox equipment.

ETA: I ended up staying with the single speed system I have. It's a terrible solution when only one zone is on, but it's the side of the house we rarely occupy, so for the prices above, I'll just let it roar.

https://www.homewyse.com/costs/cost_of_heat_pump_systems.html#google_vignette
Although this gives a range of rough costs, even if correct zip code ...
I can make a quote up to $49k with all bells/whistles and Much Less while tweaking the specifics.

This one for heat pump (Stages unknown) and ductwork unknown.
Fill in the blanks and see their other cost projections = work but you'll get an answer to if-swindling is afoot.

$16k heat pump 2021 4ton Variable only one new RA duct, reuse other metal suply ducts
Aggieland XV18 Trane/equal 18SEER 12.5/10 EER/HSPF
or $4k/ton w/o supply ductwork, hook up to existing drain & power