Climate Change Worst Case Scenario Cancelled

6,543 Views | 108 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Ag with kids
YouBet
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AG
We did it!!! Pretty amazing article from a climate change writer flat out admitting (after the fact) that worst case scenarios for climate change were bull**** and that most everything put out on the subject in the last 15 years is bull*****

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-change-s-worst-case-scenario-is-officially-canceled/ar-AA23SGfC

Quote:

You've probably never heard of the term "RCP 8.5" the highest-emission scenario used by climate scientists to project the planet's future. But if you've read about climate change, you've seen the numbers and nightmarish outcomes it produced: 4C of warming by 2100, sometimes 5C, sea level rising multiple feet, parts of the planet too hot for humans.

Those numbers shaped a decade and a half of climate journalism, including a lot of my own when I covered climate change at Time magazine. I didn't always know and didn't always communicate that the scenario behind the most apocalyptic, attention-getting findings was largely an attempt to imagine how bad things could get, not a true forecast.

Quote:

Last month, though, the scientists who built that scenario formally retired it

There were four possible scenarios created, but only the worst one really ever got reported out. So, this guy is opening the kimono and telling us all that everything we've been told is based on pure conjecture and lies. We already knew that but interesting to see it in print from a left-wing news source.

Quote:

One, the infamous and now obsolete RCP 8.5, was the "no-policy" baseline [YB - meaning nothing would be done to mitigate it - never mind that the US hit peak emissions 20 years ago and has been on the downslope ever since]

And just like any dystopia, RCP 8.5 guaranteed attention. Between 2011 and 2020, more than 2,000 climate impact studies used RCP 8.5 as their default future. Almost every dramatic projection of crop failure, mass displacement, killing heat, and coastline retreat that any general reader ever encountered in climate change coverage depended on it.

All of those projections were plausible enough under the numbers set by RCP 8.5, but by the mid-2010s, researchers, journalists, and even official government reports were routinely calling the scenario "business as usual," a phrase that transformed a stress test into something that sounded like a forecast. It wasn't, and it was never meant to be. Somewhere along the way, though, that distinction got lost.

Most still reporting doom:

Quote:

And researchers need to catch up: Pielke Jr. estimated that as late as early 2026, 30 new RCP 8.5 studies were coming out each day on average, generating more grist for the climate ultra-doom narrative. We'll see whether last month's announcement finally puts it to rest.

Guess it started a conversation though.
Rapier108
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"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
annie88
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AG
Well, when something never existed, it's pretty easy to get rid of it.
I don’t get enough credit for the things I manage not to say.
Biz Ag
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AG
This is my shocked face.
The Ex Officio Director
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Now what am I suppose to do with all my save the glacier tshirts, bumper stickers, Stanley thermis, back pack and ball point pens.

I'M SUEING SOMEONE.
In English, we say.
"I wish to be a child again."

But in poetry, we say.
"Return me to that sacred place, where time moved slow and had grace. Before the noise, before the race, where truth still wore a smiling face."
doubledog
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Image if the NGD would have become law !!!
MouthBQ98
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AG
Theyve talked pretty openly for decades on the political activism side of climate politics that they were purposefully marketing and propagandizing the worst case black swan scenario to frighten the population into conformity with activist political policy. They strangely would openly admit this as if nobody was paying attention and would understand the implications.
YouBet
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AG
Yeah, it's funny how it's mostly disappeared from the American conscious at this point. Too many who cried wolf.

And then Bill Gates declaring climate change no longer being an issue a few months ago so that Big Tech can build out their data centers helped kill the narrative as well.
rocky the dog
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AG
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Silent For Too Long
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This is still spin. They know the doomsday **** was never going to happen, so now they have to soften the curve of their forecasts and take credit for it like all their bull**** green policies are working.

The notion that all their green energy hysteria had any meaningful impact while China bult 1,000 coal power plants since 2011 and India tacked on another 150 is laughable.

Expect to see more of this over the coming decades as the Green Industrial Complex adjusts its projections to reality. It's always going to be spun as "things aren't going to be bad as we thoughts because what we are doing is working better then we thought."
Sid Farkas
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AG
Quote:

I didn't always know and didn't always communicate that the scenario behind the most apocalyptic, attention-getting findings was largely an attempt to imagine how bad things could get, not a true forecast.


Just like the lying liars about Covid, Biden's health, hunters laptop, Russia collusion, social media censorship, etc… screw all of em. No quarter.
YouBet
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AG
Yep. I laughed at this comment in the article knowing those two built out coal in massive numbers and then it was reported a few days ago that coal is back on the rise again.

Quote:

Global coal use isn't on a path to quintuple; consumption has largely plateaued after decades of growth.
TheCurl84
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AG
I'm sorry, someone needs to take a punch to the pants. It's not acceptable to just say "oh well, we missed that one".
bobbranco
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AG
Gut all govt climate spending.
safety guy
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AG
In the early 2020 democratic debate, before she dropped out, Kamala said we should treat climate change with the same resolve we had to use for the Apollo program to get man to the moon. Can you imagine the useless cost that would have entailed. She needs to be grilled about that among other things when she runs again.
TAMU1990
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AG
YouBet said:

Yeah, it's funny how it's mostly disappeared from the American conscious at this point. Too many who cried wolf.

And then Bill Gates declaring climate change no longer being an issue a few months ago so that Big Tech can build out their data centers helped kill the narrative as well.

Just think about all of the rabid liberals who decided to not have children because of climate change. The media wrote articles on this. Shameful. But there are fewer leftist with children because of their mental issues.
TAMU1990
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AG
bobbranco said:

Gut all govt climate spending.

All of it. It was just a scam to pay their buddies with gov't contracts and get a cut for political campaigns. Like Obama said, "I guess those jobs weren't shovel ready".
doubledog
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Climate is always changing before people and long after we are gone. It is (was) foolish to think throwing money at it would change anything (at least climate wise).
YouBet
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AG
TAMU1990 said:

YouBet said:

Yeah, it's funny how it's mostly disappeared from the American conscious at this point. Too many who cried wolf.

And then Bill Gates declaring climate change no longer being an issue a few months ago so that Big Tech can build out their data centers helped kill the narrative as well.

Just think about all of the rabid liberals who decided to not have children because of climate change. The media wrote articles on this. Shameful. But there are fewer leftist with children because of their mental issues.


Or how about the mental instability and depression they caused for America's youth over this. Criminal.
bobbranco
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AG
TAMU1990 said:

bobbranco said:

Gut all govt climate spending.

All of it. It was just a scam to pay their buddies with gov't contracts and get a cut for political campaigns. Like Obama said, "I guess those jobs weren't shovel ready".


The bloated Oceanography departments should be gutted and forced to correct their mistakes.
Malibu
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A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.
YouBet
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AG
Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



I just don't care about CO2. Besides, it's already solved if everyone believes China's latest investment in green energy. That would just leave India as the world's biggest polluter. We bent our emissions downwards 20 years ago. We are good here.

Regardless, no amount of wealth redistribution to the UN is going to solve such a nebulous problem as CO2. It's a total boogeyman.

What we should be focused on is water access. Arbitrary temperature goals in the Paris Accords mean nothing.
bobbranco
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AG
Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



The emboldened is based on falsified data.
Malibu
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YouBet said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



I just don't care about CO2. Besides, it's already solved if everyone believes China's latest investment in green energy. That would just leave India as the world's biggest polluter. We bent our emissions downwards 20 years ago. We are good here.

Regardless, no amount of wealth redistribution to the UN is going to solve such a nebulous problem as CO2. It's a total boogeyman.

What we should be focused on is water access. Arbitrary temperature goals in the Paris Accords mean nothing.

This argument seems to be conceding the main point of climate activists, which is that through massive state action to reinvest in green and renewable technologies, we could change the trajectory of CO2 output and worst case global warming scenarios. That is probably happening, and it's a good thing, but happened because China is smart enough to know that oil barges traveling through the Straight of Malacca is it's biggest strategic risk and needed energy independence via renewables.

CO2 doesn't care about you either, nor does it care about wealth distribution and the UN. Molecules are indifferent to ideology. Its occurrence will have atmospheric consequences independent of how deeply felt concerns are or ignored. Yes, we should focus on water access, but declaring AGW as a giant hoax we can now safely ignore seems irresponsible too.
TAMU1990
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AG
YouBet said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



I just don't care about CO2. Besides, it's already solved if everyone believes China's latest investment in green energy. That would just leave India as the world's biggest polluter. We bent our emissions downwards 20 years ago. We are good here.

Regardless, no amount of wealth redistribution to the UN is going to solve such a nebulous problem as CO2. It's a total boogeyman.

What we should be focused on is water access. Arbitrary temperature goals in the Paris Accords mean nothing.

Maybe the hotels in Paris will allow people to start adjusting their room thermostats? It is so freaking hot in those hotels. I can't imagine living there. But that would allow plebes some control over their lives and these marxist socialists can't allow that.
Malibu
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bobbranco said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



The emboldened is based on falsified data.

I go outside and I've been on the planet awhile. It's hotter here than it was when I was a kid. Maybe I'm in on the conspiracy too.
MelvinUdall
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Ultimately technological advances will curtail CO2, if that is ultimately the complete driving force of it all…if the left would just lift their hands off of nuclear and let it happen, that will help in producing massive amounts of energy more so than any other type of energy.
MelvinUdall
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Malibu said:

bobbranco said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



The emboldened is based on falsified data.

I go outside and I've been on the planet awhile. It's hotter here than it was when I was a kid. Maybe I'm in on the conspiracy too.


You can feel 1-2 degrees that dramatically? My guess is that you are older, and when you're older you feel changes of temp more so than when you were younger…I definitely feel the cold more than when I was a kid running around outside with a tshirt on and jeans…
YouBet
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AG
Malibu said:

YouBet said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



I just don't care about CO2. Besides, it's already solved if everyone believes China's latest investment in green energy. That would just leave India as the world's biggest polluter. We bent our emissions downwards 20 years ago. We are good here.

Regardless, no amount of wealth redistribution to the UN is going to solve such a nebulous problem as CO2. It's a total boogeyman.

What we should be focused on is water access. Arbitrary temperature goals in the Paris Accords mean nothing.

This argument seems to be conceding the main point of climate activists, which is that through massive state action to reinvest in green and renewable technologies, we could change the trajectory of CO2 output and worst case global warming scenarios. That is probably happening, and it's a good thing, but happened because China is smart enough to know that oil barges traveling through the Straight of Malacca is it's biggest strategic risk and needed energy independence via renewables.

CO2 doesn't care about you either, nor does it care about wealth distribution and the UN. Molecules are indifferent to ideology. Its occurrence will have atmospheric consequences independent of how deeply felt concerns are or ignored. Yes, we should focus on water access, but declaring AGW as a giant hoax we can now safely ignore seems irresponsible too.


Tell that to the left whose solution for solving this is Marxism. When the green movement can no longer be referred to as "watermelons" then maybe we can talk. Basing this entire movement on an arbitrary temperature increase in the Paris Accords is laughable.

I'm fairly pro-environment in reality; I'm just not going to concede anything to the left while they let Marxism rule the topic. Water is an issue right now; hitting some temperature goal years from now is make believe stuff. It's completely arbitrary based on a combination of pseudo science and lies. We had the hockey puck lie, the 97% of scientists lie, multiple faked studies, the carbon credit scam in South America (this one was awesome btw), and now this RCP 8.5 propaganda.

Let's focus on real world stuff like water and how we solve that and quit with the fake temp talks.
rab79
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AG
Old people generally don't tolerate heat as well as young people, nor do they remember things as accurately. Maybe you are just confused.
YouBet
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AG
Malibu said:

bobbranco said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



The emboldened is based on falsified data.

I go outside and I've been on the planet awhile. It's hotter here than it was when I was a kid. Maybe I'm in on the conspiracy too.


This comment is about as data driven as the climate movement.
BigRobSA
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safety guy said:

In the early 2020 democratic debate, before she dropped out, Kamala said we should treat climate change with the same resolve we had to use for the Apollo program to get man to the moon. Can you imagine the useless cost that would have entailed. She needs to be grilled about that among other things when she runs again.


Can you imagine all the Learing Centers that could have funded!?
Malibu
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Your framing of the argument seems a bit off to me. If global warming, therefore Marxism and since Marxism is a bad idea, therefore we should ignore any potential global warming. The concentration of CO2 and its environmental impacts are independent of any policy solution, it's just a physics problem. I think we should start there. I also think dismissing a few degrees change as no big deal is probably unwise in a system as complex as global climate.

I am with you with a 'and therefore, tax oil companies and immediately switch to unreliable solutions' is peak idiocy and will do more to make the problem worse than better, but a sober look at a nuclear future and a grid with a renewable mix is not liberal alarmism and lunacy.
Malibu
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YouBet said:

Malibu said:

bobbranco said:

Malibu said:

A more nuanced take:
Burning fossil fuels at the scale we are doing so is releasing quantities of CO2 at the scale massively more than the Earth would naturally release on its own. CO2 is not the one magical molecule we can put in the atmosphere at whatever quantities we want with no second and third order consequences. Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history, and declaring the hypothesis that human caused CO2 additions in the atmosphere has something to do with that, as models and science predicted it would, shouldn't cause thoughtful people to erupt in a deep belly laughter for being absurd liberal propaganda.

Yes, someone selling a fatalistic picture of Florida being underwater in 10 years was selling something or trying to increase their personal power. Sensationalism and doom attracts more eyeballs than a more balanced approach. We should be skeptical of worst case scenario claims.



The emboldened is based on falsified data.

I go outside and I've been on the planet awhile. It's hotter here than it was when I was a kid. Maybe I'm in on the conspiracy too.

This comment is about as data driven as the climate movement.

I can't be the only person on in the US that is seeing repeatedly higher temperatures in my locale than when I was kid and noticing that the AC is on more and being outside in the summer sucks more. Global temperatures = giant hoax. My lived experience = pshhh, you're imaging things. ETA: TexAgs courtesy, will be offline for awhile. Happy Sunday.
agent-maroon
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AG
Quote:

Current average temperatures are being exceeded year over year for recorded history,

That so? What are the "average temperatures" for the last 5 years? I wouldn't want to go changing people's hearts and minds with nothing more than feelings.
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