We did it!!! Pretty amazing article from a climate change writer flat out admitting (after the fact) that worst case scenarios for climate change were bull**** and that most everything put out on the subject in the last 15 years is bull*****
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-change-s-worst-case-scenario-is-officially-canceled/ar-AA23SGfC
There were four possible scenarios created, but only the worst one really ever got reported out. So, this guy is opening the kimono and telling us all that everything we've been told is based on pure conjecture and lies. We already knew that but interesting to see it in print from a left-wing news source.
Most still reporting doom:
Guess it started a conversation though.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-change-s-worst-case-scenario-is-officially-canceled/ar-AA23SGfC
Quote:
You've probably never heard of the term "RCP 8.5" the highest-emission scenario used by climate scientists to project the planet's future. But if you've read about climate change, you've seen the numbers and nightmarish outcomes it produced: 4C of warming by 2100, sometimes 5C, sea level rising multiple feet, parts of the planet too hot for humans.
Those numbers shaped a decade and a half of climate journalism, including a lot of my own when I covered climate change at Time magazine. I didn't always know and didn't always communicate that the scenario behind the most apocalyptic, attention-getting findings was largely an attempt to imagine how bad things could get, not a true forecast.
Quote:
Last month, though, the scientists who built that scenario formally retired it
There were four possible scenarios created, but only the worst one really ever got reported out. So, this guy is opening the kimono and telling us all that everything we've been told is based on pure conjecture and lies. We already knew that but interesting to see it in print from a left-wing news source.
Quote:
One, the infamous and now obsolete RCP 8.5, was the "no-policy" baseline [YB - meaning nothing would be done to mitigate it - never mind that the US hit peak emissions 20 years ago and has been on the downslope ever since]
And just like any dystopia, RCP 8.5 guaranteed attention. Between 2011 and 2020, more than 2,000 climate impact studies used RCP 8.5 as their default future. Almost every dramatic projection of crop failure, mass displacement, killing heat, and coastline retreat that any general reader ever encountered in climate change coverage depended on it.
All of those projections were plausible enough under the numbers set by RCP 8.5, but by the mid-2010s, researchers, journalists, and even official government reports were routinely calling the scenario "business as usual," a phrase that transformed a stress test into something that sounded like a forecast. It wasn't, and it was never meant to be. Somewhere along the way, though, that distinction got lost.
Most still reporting doom:
Quote:
And researchers need to catch up: Pielke Jr. estimated that as late as early 2026, 30 new RCP 8.5 studies were coming out each day on average, generating more grist for the climate ultra-doom narrative. We'll see whether last month's announcement finally puts it to rest.
Guess it started a conversation though.