decline in US trade was more than offset by Europe, Africa, LATAM, etc

Is this temporary or will they be able keep this rolling for a while? All the talk at the time of tariffs was that China would not be able to offset the loss of US consumers.

Time to invade China.

Lol get ****ed china

The US, by far, has kept China afloat all these years.

2024: United States: US $524.9 billion (14.7% of China's total exports)

Next two are...

Hong Kong: $291.4 billion (8.1%) - basically China
Vietnam: $161.8 billion (4.5%)

Gaeilge said:

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Their largest offset was Africa. Africa can't sustain ***** They'll trade them to death and then take their ports and resources as payment when they default.

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Lol, good luck with that. China has no ability to project power militarily as far as Africa and those countries are insanely corrupt and change leaders all the time. They will just tell China to go to hell and they won't be able to do anything about it. The only way you can get control in Africa is with serious military intervention and conquering territory and that isn't going to happen from China. It's not like the US is going to help China to force African countries to pay their debts.

This is about internals on China. The government needs to keep those people working and manufacturing. They care about the jobs and stopping internal strife. Thus they will let them keep making whatever and simply printing money or manipulating currency to keep selling it even if they know they won't get paid. Like most things in China the goal is about the power of the CCP and the power of the CCP comes from providing a lifestyle for their citizens even if it is a ponzi scheme and China is a mountain of ponzi schemes.

Europe is also insane to let China in at the level they are. They will simply undercut all of their domestic manufacturing because the CCP will finance the Chinese companies to make volume at a lower cost than anyone else because they don't care about profit. They succeeded in doing the same in the US across multiple industries and we have finally been fighting back. The sacred cow of course is autos. China is making an obscene amount of EV's and are going to be willing to dump them anywhere they can for whatever they can get. It's about trying to gain market share ideally and if not at least they can keep their people working. They have no concern about their own debt which makes ours look like nothing, they just keep manipulating the Yuan but eventually the music will stop.

The Chinese already do an have been securing ports and resources through failed loans into Africa. It's part of their B&R plan.

Gaeilge said:

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The Chinese already do an have been securing ports and resources through failed loans into Africa. It's part of their B&R plan.

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No doubt China has a lot of investment and even some military presence in China but you are talking about countries that have a VERY different concept of the Rule of Law than we do or even China does. The only way you can enforce law in places like that is through force and China doesn't have the ability to do that. Now if they start sending a few hundred thousand troops to Africa and decide to colonize that changes things but I seriously doubt that will happen. China doesn't have a Navy capable of enforcing trade and projecting power, I wouldn't even consider it the strength of the Coast Guard.

Short term they will have those bases and continue to strip whatever minerals they can as long as they can buy off the warlord of the month in charge. Long term though there is nothing to stop those countries from just kicking China out and telling them to kiss their ass about ever getting any money out of them. What is China going to do? Sue Liberia or Eritria or Sudan or Algeria? Good luck with that, they aren't exactly worried about their credit rating or how they are perceived on the world stage. Unless they want to go in and invade and conquer it's paper thin authority. It's not like those countries feel some obligation to China or certainly any cultural connection.

You have to have the raw power to back it up otherwise it's a sand castle.

Not surprised. Germany can't produce anymore because their energy costs are through the roof.

LeftyAg89 said:

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Did that news come out of China? or was it some legitimate source?

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Where would you find a legitimate source anymore?

I don't believe this OP. I don't think the math gets you there.

https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-trade-surplus-record-59f6fcc80ee3afc204a024f57766d319?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share

When I was in Wuhan last year, the stores in the mall were lined with Russian goods. I'm sure the Chinese are dumping plenty of stuff there too. Add in India, SE Asia, etc., I see no reason why China couldn't offset a 40% reduction in exports to the US, while we impose more taxes on ourselves. Of course, I have no more access to the numbers than anyone else. What I do know is that none of this will bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. We might have so many engineers that we don't know what to do with them, but engineers don't make stuff. They sit at computers.

94chem said:

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When I was in Wuhan last year...

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So....it was YOU!!!!!1

Are we believing anything that comes from Chyna?

BigRobSA said:

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94chem said:

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When I was in Wuhan last year...

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So....it was YOU!!!!!1

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No, I adopted a child from that quaint hamlet of 11 million souls before anyone had heard of it.

Trade surplus has two components. Exports obviously is one that is most heavily discussed when it comes to China because they are forced to rely so heavily on it.

Their domestic demand for goods is cratering. They'll have 250 million fewer working age adults by 2050 (that's generous UN data). That's more workers than the US working population completely disappearing in 2 decades.

Their domestic consumption as a component of GDP lags global averages by 20%. They are doing constant fiscal stimulus to blow bubbles in their domestic economy.

Using market exchange rates, their GDP is roughly 65% of the US GDP including these record breaking trade surpluses. (And our GDP likewise considers our trade deficit with other countries including China). In nominal US dollars, removing PPP which overstates China GDP...US GDP per capita is roughly $90,000 while Chinese GDP per capita is roughly $14,000.

China's focus on exports is their best card in the global economic game - it makes perfect sense to see record trade imbalances when their local population can't afford a pot to piss in.

TexasAggie73 said:

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LeftyAg89 said:

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Did that news come out of China? or was it some legitimate source?

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Where would you find a legitimate source anymore?

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It's all relative, but... the first place I would look is ABC!!! (anyone but china)

Why did our doofus dumbo Presidents for 50 years build up China? They were a poor 3rd world country then.

We got greedy for short term money and sold out our long term.

Thank you Boomers.

We are on track to do the same with India in 50 years.

infinity ag said:

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Why did our doofus dumbo Presidents for 50 years build up China? They were a poor 3rd world country then.

We got greedy for short term money and sold out our long term.

Thank you Boomers.

We are on track to do the same with India in 50 years.

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Actually half that, China joined the WTO in 2001. It went reeeaalllly quick.

Gaeilge said:

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Their largest offset was Africa. Africa can't sustain ***** They'll trade them to death and then take their ports and resources as payment when they default.

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When the Africans default, they'll just nationalize those ports and resources. China has no ability to project military power into Africa.

Sims said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why did our doofus dumbo Presidents for 50 years build up China? They were a poor 3rd world country then.

We got greedy for short term money and sold out our long term.

Thank you Boomers.

We are on track to do the same with India in 50 years.

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Actually half that, China joined the WTO in 2001. It went reeeaalllly quick.

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Even worse then. We built them up in 25 years to a point where they stare us down (no racist joke here).

It will take us 10 years to build up our next line of competitors.

Why do we do this? Don't we learn from history.

94chem said:

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BigRobSA said:

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94chem said:

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When I was in Wuhan last year...

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So....it was YOU!!!!!1

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No, I adopted a child from that quaint hamlet of 11 million souls before anyone had heard of it.

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So, your child was disoriented?



Sorry for the pun.
Good on you, Sir.