Today, it was announced that Polymarket has partnered with Wall Street and the Dow Jones.
Prediction markets have seemed to take off in recent years following the boom of sports gambling. Polymarket and Kalshi are the biggest players and they offer sports gambling props as well as other prediction type props like election outcomes or more sketchy props like whether the United States would invade Venezuela by a certain date.
Interestingly, there was massive movement on a prop about whether Maduro would remain in office through the year in the hours leading up to the raid that led to his arrest, seeming to point toward someone with insider knowledge profiting off of that.
Additionally, there were complaints about the platform's refusal to payout on a prop for the U.S. invading Venezuela because the U.S.'s actions did not meet the company's definition of "invading."
Another wild case that I heard about was a prop for whether Charlie Kirk would run for office by the year 2029. After his unfortunate death, anyone who wagered on the prop received a refund.
It is troubling that this stuff is becoming easier to access and they are making it possible to bet on anything and everything. It is equally troubling these markets can operate in a sketchy way and take advantage of their user base. This will surely lead to addiction and financial ruin for many.
ETA: Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser for Polymarket, so I doubt meaningful regulation is coming anytime soon.
We're honored to be named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal & the Dow Jones.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 7, 2026
The World's Largest Prediction Market™ 🤝 the most trusted voices in finance pic.twitter.com/S6o7qkCUS6
Prediction markets have seemed to take off in recent years following the boom of sports gambling. Polymarket and Kalshi are the biggest players and they offer sports gambling props as well as other prediction type props like election outcomes or more sketchy props like whether the United States would invade Venezuela by a certain date.
Interestingly, there was massive movement on a prop about whether Maduro would remain in office through the year in the hours leading up to the raid that led to his arrest, seeming to point toward someone with insider knowledge profiting off of that.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026
Additionally, there were complaints about the platform's refusal to payout on a prop for the U.S. invading Venezuela because the U.S.'s actions did not meet the company's definition of "invading."
Polymarket somehow thinks that Venezuela wasn't invaded. How is this anything but fraud? pic.twitter.com/JSCPeXP9Uu
— Michael Fowlie (@mwfowlie) January 6, 2026
Another wild case that I heard about was a prop for whether Charlie Kirk would run for office by the year 2029. After his unfortunate death, anyone who wagered on the prop received a refund.
It is troubling that this stuff is becoming easier to access and they are making it possible to bet on anything and everything. It is equally troubling these markets can operate in a sketchy way and take advantage of their user base. This will surely lead to addiction and financial ruin for many.
ETA: Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser for Polymarket, so I doubt meaningful regulation is coming anytime soon.
